证券研究报告 食品饮料 | 饮料乳品 港股|首次覆盖报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 11 月 07 日 证券分析师 张东雪 SAC：S1350525060001 zhangdongxue@huayuanstock.com 林若尧 SAC：S1350525070002 linruoyao@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | 2025 | 年 | 11 | | 日 | 06 | 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港元） | | | | 3.45 | | | | | 一年内最高/最低（港 | | | | 4.55/1.23 | | | | | 元） | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万港元） | | | | 13,429.91 | | | | | 流通市值（百万港元） | | | | 13,429.91 | | | | | 资产负债率（%） | | | | 71.77 | | | | | 资料来源：聚源数据 | | | | | | | | 优然牧业(09858.HK) 投资评级 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The report emphasizes a turning point in supply and demand equilibrium, particularly in the liquor industry, with a focus on the accelerated clearance of inventory in the baijiu sector [3][15][21] - The report suggests that the liquor industry is transitioning from a "U-shaped adjustment" to a "V-shaped adjustment," indicating a potential for recovery as market pessimism is already reflected in stock prices [15][25] - The report highlights the resilience of consumer staples, particularly in the beverage and snack sectors, which are expected to show strong growth despite the challenges faced by the liquor industry [3][12] Group 2: Baijiu Industry Analysis - The baijiu sector is experiencing a significant adjustment, with sales and inventory levels rapidly clearing, particularly in the high-end and mid-range segments [3][15][21] - The report notes that the current adjustment cycle has a longer duration compared to previous cycles, with a single-quarter decline exceeding previous lows, indicating a deeper market correction [15][25] - Key companies to watch in the baijiu sector include Shanxi Fenjiu, Gujing Gongjiu, and Moutai, with a focus on both growth and stable performers [3][21][28] Group 3: Beer and Beverage Sector Insights - The beer industry is characterized by stable pricing and sales, with a recommendation to focus on regional leaders that have competitive advantages [3][41] - The beverage sector is noted for its structural growth, with leading companies like Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring expected to perform well [3][41] - The report indicates that the beer industry's profitability is improving due to cost advantages and a stable competitive landscape, despite facing demand pressures [41][42] Group 4: Consumer Goods and Snacks - The consumer goods sector is showing signs of recovery, with food raw materials and health products still in a growth phase, indicating high elasticity in certain categories [3][12] - The snack industry is highlighted for its innovation and growth potential, with companies like Three Squirrels and Wei Long expected to drive future growth [3][12] - The report suggests that the overall consumer goods market is stabilizing, with a focus on companies that demonstrate strong innovation and channel expansion capabilities [3][12]

| 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 09858 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 10,000,000,000 | USD | | 0.00001 USD | | 100,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | USD | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 10,000,000,000 | USD | | 0.00001 USD | | 100,000 | 本月底法定/註冊股本總額： USD 100,000 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年10月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中國優然牧業集團有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年11月3日 I. 法定/註冊股 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook for the Hong Kong food and beverage sector, indicating potential investment opportunities in resilient companies within the industry [2][9]. Core Insights - The report outlines six phases of the Hang Seng Consumer Staples Index, highlighting the cyclical nature of the industry and the impact of external factors such as economic conditions and policy changes on consumer demand [3][4][28]. - The analysis emphasizes the importance of identifying resilient stocks in the food and beverage sector, particularly in the upstream farming and downstream dairy product industries, as they are expected to benefit from market dynamics and policy support [6][7][53]. Summary by Sections Phase Review of the Hang Seng Consumer Staples Index - Phase 1: Downward trend due to slowing GDP and reduced consumer demand, leading to a decline in the index [3]. - Phase 2: Strong recovery driven by global economic recovery and improved earnings of leading consumer staples companies [3]. - Phase 3: Period of volatility influenced by trade tensions and tightening global liquidity [3]. - Phase 4: Rapid increase in the index due to the rigid demand for essential consumption during the pandemic [3]. - Phase 5: Continuous decline influenced by repeated pandemic disruptions and rising raw material costs [4]. - Phase 6: Valuation recovery initiated by domestic consumption policies and inflow of long-term capital [4][28]. Investment Opportunities in the Food and Beverage Sector - Upstream farming opportunities are highlighted, with a focus on the dairy and beef sectors, where prices are expected to stabilize and rise due to supply constraints and recovering demand [6][44]. - Downstream dairy product opportunities are supported by recent policies aimed at boosting demand and improving market competition, which will benefit leading companies in the sector [7][53]. Investment Recommendations - Companies such as Yurun Agriculture (09858.HK) and Modern Farming (01117.HK) are recommended for their strong cash flow and potential to benefit from the anticipated recovery in raw milk prices [9][57]. - The report suggests that policy support will create upward momentum for companies like Mengniu Dairy (02319.HK) and H&H International Holdings (01112.HK), which are positioned to capitalize on market opportunities [10][57]. - The potential for industry restructuring and the emergence of leading companies is noted, particularly in the coconut water segment, with recommendations for IFBH (06603.HK) [11][58].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The food and beverage sector has seen a decline in fund allocation, with the configuration ratio dropping to a new low of 6.4% in Q3 2025 from 8.0% in Q2 2025, indicating a significant reduction in investment interest [5][14] - The white wine sector is expected to reach a performance and valuation bottom, with recommendations to strategically invest in this area due to its relatively low valuation and stable chip structure [8][40] - The beverage and snack sectors are performing well, driven by their essential consumption characteristics and resilience against external market fluctuations [41][43] Summary by Sections Fund Allocation Trends - In Q3 2025, the allocation ratio for food and beverage in all market funds decreased to 6.4%, down 1.6 percentage points from Q2 2025, marking the lowest level since 2020 [5][14] - The allocation ratio for active equity funds in food and beverage fell to 4.1% in Q3 2025, down from 5.6% in Q2 2025, reflecting a continued significant reduction in investment [5][14] White Wine Sector Insights - The proportion of active equity funds heavily invested in white wine decreased from 4.0% in Q2 2025 to 3.2% in Q3 2025, indicating a trend of reduced allocation across both active and passive funds [6][25] - Companies with cleared financial reports, such as Luzhou Laojiao and Shede Liquor, are gaining market favor, while others like Wuliangye and Moutai are seeing reduced holdings [6][25] Performance and Market Dynamics - The food and beverage sector's market value increased by 3.7% in Q3 2025, but it underperformed the CSI 300 index by approximately 18.6 percentage points, ranking fifth from the bottom in the overall market [15][21] - The overall market transaction amount for the food and beverage sector fell to 1.65%, down 1.05 percentage points from the previous quarter, indicating a decline in trading activity [15][21] Investment Recommendations - It is suggested to strategically invest in the white wine sector, focusing on stable companies like Kweichow Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu, as well as those undergoing market reforms like Shede Liquor [8][40] - For the broader consumer goods sector, attention should be given to companies that benefit from new channels and product categories, such as Wei Long and Ximai Foods [43]

Investment Rating - The report provides various investment ratings for companies in the consumer staples sector, with "Outperform" ratings for companies like China Feihe, Haidilao, and China Resources Beer, while Budweiser APAC is rated as "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a rise in packaging material prices and an increase in the beer spot cost index by 2.96% year-on-year, indicating upward pressure on costs in the consumer staples sector [1][35]. - The cost indices for six categories of consumer goods monitored by HTI mostly increased, with notable changes in spot and futures indices across beer, frozen food, soft drinks, instant noodles, dairy products, and condiments [35]. Summary by Category Beer - The beer spot cost index is at 116.32, down 0.06% from last week, while the futures index is at 115.68, up 1.2% [13]. - Year-to-date, the spot index has decreased by 0.86%, and the futures index has decreased by 7.13% [14]. Condiments - The condiments spot cost index is at 100.51, down 0.1%, and the futures index is at 101.3, up 1.55% [17]. - Year-to-date, the spot index has decreased by 2.66%, and the futures index has decreased by 7.47% [17]. Dairy Products - The dairy products spot cost index is at 101.25, down 0.13%, and the futures index is at 91.04, up 0.69% [20]. - Year-to-date, the spot index has decreased by 2.89%, and the futures index has decreased by 3.28% [20]. Instant Noodles - The instant noodles spot cost index is at 103.62, down 0.23%, and the futures index is at 102.53, up 0.88% [23]. - Year-to-date, the spot index has decreased by 2.29%, and the futures index has decreased by 5.47% [24]. Frozen Food - The frozen food spot cost index is at 120.39, up 1.02%, and the futures index is at 119.44, up 1.72% [28]. - Year-to-date, the spot index has decreased by 0.17%, and the futures index has decreased by 1.35% [28]. Soft Drinks - The soft drinks spot cost index is at 109.39, up 0.22%, and the futures index is at 109.26, up 0.72% [31]. - Year-to-date, the spot index has decreased by 3.04%, and the futures index has decreased by 9.54% [31].

Core Viewpoint - Dairy stocks experienced a significant midday rally, indicating positive market sentiment towards the sector [1] Company Performance - YouRan MuYe (09858.HK) saw an increase of 5.74%, reaching HKD 3.13 [1] - Modern MuYe (01117.HK) rose by 3.36%, trading at HKD 1.23 [1] - China Feihe (06186.HK) gained 1.95%, with a price of HKD 4.18 [1] - China Shengmu (01432.HK) increased by 1.59%, priced at HKD 0.32 [1]

Group 1 - Dairy stocks experienced a midday surge, with Yurun Dairy rising by 5.74% to HKD 3.13, Modern Dairy up by 3.36% to HKD 1.23, China Feihe increasing by 1.95% to HKD 4.18, and China Shengmu rising by 1.59% to HKD 0.32 [1] - Guosheng Securities reported that after a four-year decline, raw milk prices have recently stabilized, with the national average price increasing from CNY 3.02/kg on August 1 to CNY 3.04/kg by the end of September, and prices in Ningxia rising from CNY 2.1-2.2/kg to CNY 3.5-3.7/kg [1] - The increase in milk prices is attributed to demand from the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day gifts, as well as a natural decrease in supply due to the "heat stress" phase for dairy cows from July to September [1] Group 2 - Tianfeng Securities noted that since September, while some regions have seen a rebound in raw milk prices due to pre-holiday stocking and student milk production demand, overall prices in major production areas remain stable [2] - Current milk prices are still below the cost line, leading to ongoing industry losses and financial pressure from silage, with a 0.18% month-on-month decrease in dairy cow inventory in September, following a 0.2% decline in August, totaling an approximate 8% reduction [2] - Despite short-term support for milk prices from holiday factors, the trend of capacity reduction in dairy companies continues, and the end of the capacity reduction cycle may be nearing, making a price cycle turning point worth anticipating [2]

Group 1 - Dairy stocks experienced a significant increase, with YouRan Dairy rising by 5.74% to HKD 3.13, Modern Dairy up by 3.36% to HKD 1.23, China Feihe increasing by 1.95% to HKD 4.18, and China Shengmu rising by 1.59% to HKD 0.32 [1] - Guosheng Securities reported that after a four-year decline, raw milk prices have recently stabilized, with the national average price rising from RMB 3.02/kg in August to RMB 3.04/kg by the end of September, and prices in Ningxia increasing from RMB 2.1-2.2/kg to RMB 3.5-3.7/kg [1] - The increase in milk prices is attributed to demand from the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day gifts, as well as a natural decrease in supply due to the "heat stress" phase for dairy cows from July to September [1] Group 2 - Tianfeng Securities noted that since September, while there has been a rebound in raw milk prices in some regions due to pre-holiday stocking and student milk production demand, overall prices in major production areas remain stable [2] - Current milk prices are still below the cost line, leading to ongoing industry losses and financial pressure from silage, with a 0.18% decrease in dairy cow inventory in September compared to August [2] - The cumulative reduction in dairy cow inventory has reached approximately 8%, and while the holiday factors provide short-term support for milk prices, the trend of capacity reduction continues [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong dairy stocks have rebounded after a period of decline, with several companies showing positive price movements, although the overall dairy price remains below cost levels, indicating ongoing industry challenges [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - Yurun Dairy increased by 4%, Ecological Dairy by 3.77%, Modern Dairy by 2.5%, China Shengmu by 1.5%, and China Feihe by 1.46% [2]. - The rebound in stock prices is attributed to pre-holiday inventory buildup and increased demand for student milk production [1]. Group 2: Industry Conditions - Despite the short-term support for milk prices due to holiday factors, the trend of capacity reduction in the dairy industry continues [1]. - The overall milk price remains below the cost line, leading to ongoing industry losses and financial pressures from silage [1]. - The number of dairy cows decreased by 0.18% month-on-month in September, following a 0.2% decline in August, with a cumulative reduction of approximately 8% [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The capacity reduction trend may be nearing its end, and a turning point in the milk price cycle is anticipated [1].