优然牧业 202050403 摘要 Q&A 悠然牧业在 2024 年的业绩表现如何？ 2024 年，悠然牧业面临乳制品销售市场需求低于预期及行业结构深度调整的挑 战，但通过高质量发展战略和精益化管理，公司各项业务和财务指标全面向好。 全年营收同比增长 7.5%，达到 201 亿元，毛利率提升 4.9 个百分点至 28.8%。 原有业务收入 151 亿元，同比增长 17%，毛利 49.4 亿元，同比增长 33.8%。特 色奶品类增加羊奶，增至八大品类。全国运营 97 座牧场，平均年化单产提升至 • 悠然牧业预计 2025 年下半年乳制品市场将回暖，实现供需基本平衡，主要 受益于消费刺激政策和国内经济好转。公司目标是奶牛结构和产量实现中 双位数增长，单产提升至 13 吨，同时维持毛利基本稳定，自由现金流持续 向好。 • 政府出台扶持政策旨在缓解奶价下跌导致的行业亏损，但具体效果取决于 地方政府财政情况。国家层面奶业振兴战略显著提升总产量和自给率，但 消费端需求疲软导致供需矛盾依然存在，政策效果有待观察。 • 截至 2024 年底，全国奶牛存栏约 620 万头，要实现供需平衡需减少至少 30 万头成母牛。2024 ...

[Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 首次 覆盖 [Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/食品饮料/饮料 证券研究报告 优然牧业（9858.HK）公司研究报告 2025 年 04 月 02 日 股票数据 | [0Table_StockInfo 4 月 01 日收盘价（H] KD） | 2.48 | | --- | --- | | 52 周股价波动（HKD） | 1.05-2.60 | | 总股本（百万股） | 3893 | | 总市值（百万 HKD） | 9654 | 市场表现 [Table_QuoteInfo] -100.0% -80.0% -60.0% -40.0% -20.0% 0.0% 2022-1 2022-4 2022-7 2022-10 2023-1 2023-4 2023-7 2023-10 2024-1 2024-4 2024-7 2024-10 2025-1 优然牧业 恒生指数 沪深 300 对比 1M 2M 3M 绝对涨幅（%） 11.2 35.5 54.0 | 相对涨幅（%） | 10.3 | 20.7 | 35.8 | | --- | --- | --- | ...

Summary of Yuran Dairy's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Yuran Dairy - **Industry**: Dairy Industry Key Points and Arguments Milk Price Performance - Yuran Dairy's average milk price for 2024 is 4.12 CNY per kilogram, compared to the national average of 3.32 CNY per kilogram, indicating a smaller decline in milk prices than the industry average due to the company's raw milk structure advantages [3][4] - The company benefits from a cost-plus pricing model for specialty fresh milk, which constitutes 29% of its production, and higher prices in southern pastures [3][4] - Forecasts suggest that the proportion of specialty fresh milk will slightly decrease to 25%-28% in the coming years, while the production growth rate of high-quality fresh milk may exceed that of specialty fresh milk [3][4] Cost Structure and Financials - The sales cost of milk is 2.77 CNY per kilogram, with feed costs accounting for 76% (2.1 CNY) [3][5] - Cash costs are approximately 2.62 CNY per kilogram, and total expenses for heifer costs are around 4.8 billion CNY [5] - The company aims to achieve a milk yield of 13 tons per cow by 2025 and reduce sales costs to below 2.7 CNY [3][16] Market Dynamics and Policy Impact - Demand-side policies aimed at stimulating consumption may accelerate the cycle reversal but could also delay the exit of small and medium-sized farms [6][7] - The dairy industry faces a supply-demand imbalance, with a long-term reliance on imports for about 30% of raw materials [7][8] - The government emphasizes ensuring basic production capacity and encouraging high-quality development to address the reliance on imports [7][8] Fair Value Adjustments - In 2024, the company experienced a significant fair value adjustment of 3.92 billion CNY, primarily due to differences in the depreciation accounting method for breeding cows under international accounting standards [9][10] - The valuation of breeding cows decreased from approximately 31,000 CNY to 26,000 CNY per head, impacting the overall biological asset value [9][10] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a reduction in capital expenditures in 2025, with a focus on returning value to shareholders through dividends based on positive free cash flow [18][19] - The company repaid 2 billion CNY in loans in 2024 and expects further improvements in financing costs in 2025 [19] - The overall gross profit target for 2025 is expected to remain stable despite potential declines in milk prices in the first half of the year [17] Competitive Positioning - Yuran Dairy's diversified raw material structure leads to higher feed costs compared to competitors, but the company benefits from higher margins during milk price upcycles due to its high-quality milk proportion [15][21] - The company maintains a stable relationship with major clients like Yili, which accounted for 94% of its raw milk revenue in 2024 [24] Industry Trends - The rise in global dairy prices, particularly for bulk powder, is attributed to inflation and rising costs abroad, which may support domestic demand and reduce imports [25][26] Additional Important Insights - The company’s operational efficiency and management improvements are expected to provide further cost optimization opportunities [16] - The dairy industry is undergoing a transition from rapid scale expansion to a focus on high-quality development, aligning with national strategic goals [8]

2025 年 04 月 01 日 原料奶业务增长强劲，成本管控能力突出 买入(首次) 事件 分析师：孙山山 S1050521110005 sunss@cfsc.com.cn 联系人：肖燕南 S1050123060024 xiaoyn@cfsc.com.cn 基本数据 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 优然牧业 恒生指数 相关研究 投资要点 ▌ 收入小幅增长，现金流表现较好 收入增长稳健，非现金项目影响利润表现。2024 年公司实现 营收 201 亿元，同增 7.5%；因生物资产公平值变动及资产减 值等非现金项目影响，2024 年归母净利润为-6.91 亿元。其 中，生物资产公平值变动亏损 39.2 亿元，物业及设备减值亏 损 5.1 亿元。调整后溢利表现亮眼，现金 EBITDA 率显著提 升。2024 年现金 EBITDA 为 53.25 亿元，同增 38.3%；现金 EBITDA 率达 26.5%，同比提升 5.9pcts。2024 年生物资产开 支为 40.7 亿元，同比基本持平。成本控制成效显著，费用率 略优化。20 ...

2025 年 04 月 01 日 原料奶业务增长强劲，成本管控能力突出 买入(首次) 事件 分析师：孙山山 S1050521110005 sunss@cfsc.com.cn 联系人：肖燕南 S1050123060024 xiaoyn@cfsc.com.cn 基本数据 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 优然牧业 恒生指数 相关研究 —优然牧业（9858.HK）公司事件点评报告 2025 年 3 月 28 日，优然牧业发布 2024 年业绩公告。 投资要点 ▌ 收入小幅增长，现金流表现较好 收入增长稳健，非现金项目影响利润表现。2024 年公司实现 营收 201 亿元，同增 7.5%；因生物资产公平值变动及资产减 值等非现金项目影响，2024 年归母净利润为-6.91 亿元。其 中，生物资产公平值变动亏损 39.2 亿元，物业及设备减值亏 损 5.1 亿元。调整后溢利表现亮眼，现金 EBITDA 率显著提 升。2024 年现金 EBITDA 为 53.25 亿元，同增 38.3%；现金 EBITDA 率达 26.5%，同比提升 ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2024, the dairy industry leader, Youran Dairy, achieved a counter-cyclical growth performance, demonstrating strategic resilience and efficient operations, with a revenue of 20.096 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.5% [1] Financial Performance - Youran Dairy reported a significant reduction in net profit loss by 34.2%, with a cash EBITDA growth of 38.3% to 5.325 billion yuan, indicating improved profitability [1] - The company achieved a positive free cash flow of 240 million yuan due to increased operating cash flow and reduced capital expenditures [1] - The gross profit margin improved to 28.8%, up by 4.9 percentage points, while the interest-bearing debt ratio decreased by 1.2 percentage points [2] Operational Efficiency - The company enhanced operational efficiency and cost control through technology empowerment and lean management, benefiting from its full industry chain business model [2] - Youran Dairy's raw milk business revenue reached 15.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17%, with a gross margin of 32.7%, up by 4.1 percentage points [3] - The annualized yield per cow increased by 5% to 12.6 tons, with the company operating 97 modern farms [3][4] Product Innovation and Market Expansion - Youran Dairy launched new organic and goat milk farms, expanding its specialty fresh milk product line to eight varieties, which are less affected by raw milk price fluctuations and have high added value [5] - The company introduced innovative products in its ruminant feed solutions, achieving a gross margin of 16.8% in this segment [7] - The feed business saw a 44.5% year-on-year increase in sales volume, driven by new product launches and market expansion efforts [7][8] Research and Development - Youran Dairy significantly increased its R&D investment by 76%, with a team of nearly 400 people, resulting in 12 new patents and a total of 91 core patents [9] - The company developed advanced breeding technologies, including sex-controlled embryos, which enhanced its breeding efficiency and economic benefits [8][10] Industry Outlook - The dairy industry is undergoing profound changes, but favorable policies and a recovering consumer market present significant growth potential for Youran Dairy [11] - Analysts are optimistic about the company's prospects, anticipating benefits from the reversal of the raw milk cycle and potential profit growth [11]

Financial Performance - Revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024, was RMB 20,096,160 thousand, representing a 7.5% increase from RMB 18,693,896 thousand in 2023[3] - Gross profit increased by 29.4% to RMB 5,782,990 thousand compared to RMB 4,469,785 thousand in the previous year[3] - The company reported a net loss attributable to owners of RMB 690,890 thousand, a significant improvement from a loss of RMB 1,049,980 thousand in 2023[3] - EBITDA for the year was RMB 5,324,910 thousand, reflecting a 38.3% increase from RMB 3,851,418 thousand in the prior year[3] - The company did not recommend a final dividend for the year ended December 31, 2024[3] - Other income rose to RMB 549,370 thousand from RMB 453,821 thousand, indicating a growth of 21.0%[8] - The cost of sales increased to RMB 18,782,079 thousand from RMB 17,499,357 thousand, reflecting a rise of 7.3%[8] - The company experienced a loss of RMB 774,465 thousand before tax, an improvement from a loss of RMB 1,359,504 thousand in the previous year[8] - Total comprehensive loss for the year was RMB 936,534 thousand, compared to RMB 1,511,836 thousand in 2023, showing a reduction of 38.1%[10] - The annual loss for the group in 2024 was RMB 690,890,000, a decrease from RMB 1,049,980,000 in 2023, indicating an improvement in financial performance[55] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets increased to RMB 35,300,474 thousand in 2024 from RMB 34,793,319 thousand in 2023, representing a growth of approximately 1.46%[12] - Non-current assets decreased slightly to RMB 22,546,780 thousand in 2024 from RMB 25,285,148 thousand in 2023, a decline of about 10.9%[13] - Current liabilities rose to RMB 21,109,887 thousand in 2024, up from RMB 20,914,580 thousand in 2023, indicating an increase of approximately 0.93%[13] - The company's net asset value decreased to RMB 12,159,758 thousand in 2024 from RMB 13,098,695 thousand in 2023, a decline of about 7.2%[13] - Cash and cash equivalents dropped significantly to RMB 829,310 thousand in 2024 from RMB 3,935,982 thousand in 2023, a decrease of approximately 78.9%[12] - The company's goodwill remained unchanged at RMB 672,014 thousand for both 2024 and 2023[12] - The company's total equity attributable to owners decreased to RMB 11,295,246 thousand in 2024 from RMB 11,830,718 thousand in 2023, a decline of approximately 4.5%[13] Production and Sales - The annualized milk production per cow (excluding certain breeds) increased to 12.6 tons from 12.0 tons, marking a 5.0% improvement[3] - Revenue from raw milk sales is RMB 15,100,802,000 for 2024, compared to RMB 12,902,987,000 in 2023, reflecting an increase of about 17%[32] - Revenue from feed sales decreased to RMB 4,446,410,000 in 2024 from RMB 5,209,450,000 in 2023, a decline of approximately 14.6%[32] - The total raw milk production for the company was 3,747,448 tons, with an annualized yield per cow of 12.6 tons, reflecting a 5.0% increase from the previous year[68] - The volume of raw milk sold increased by 24.6% from 2,945,840 tons in 2023 to 3,669,563 tons in the reporting period[125] Costs and Expenses - Total sales cost rose to RMB 18,782,079 thousand in 2024, compared to RMB 17,499,357 thousand in 2023, indicating an increase of about 7.3%[45] - The total employee costs rose to RMB 965,947,000 in 2024, compared to RMB 876,966,000 in 2023, marking an increase of about 10.1%[54] - Administrative expenses increased by 3.7% from RMB 778 million in 2023 to RMB 807 million, with a decrease in the proportion of administrative expenses to revenue from 4.2% to 4.0%[141] - Sales and distribution expenses rose by 2.1% from RMB 620 million in 2023 to RMB 632 million, with the proportion of these expenses to revenue decreasing from 3.3% to 3.1%[140] - Other expenses surged by 74.6% from RMB 70 million in 2023 to RMB 123 million, primarily due to increased R&D investments[142] Research and Development - The company’s research and development costs recognized in profit or loss increased to RMB 114,102,000 in 2024 from RMB 64,846,000 in 2023, showing a significant increase of approximately 76%[54] - R&D investment increased significantly by 76.0% year-on-year, reflecting the group's commitment to innovation in the dairy industry[106] - The group has established a leading ruminant nutrition database with over 1 million samples supports precise nutrition and efficient testing in livestock farming[111] Governance and Compliance - The company emphasizes strict corporate governance and has adhered to all applicable corporate governance code provisions during the reporting period[175] - The company has adopted the Corporate Governance Code and confirmed that all directors strictly adhered to the standards during the reporting period[178] - The audit committee has been established to review and supervise the financial reporting process and internal control systems[179] Sustainability and Environmental Initiatives - The group aims to achieve carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2050, actively implementing various carbon reduction measures[118] - The group successfully issued 49,600 tons of carbon credits through its biogas project, certified by the Verified Carbon Standard (VCS)[119] - The group has improved its sustainability assessment score by 13 points compared to the previous year, recognized as the "Best Progress Company" in the food industry[120] Market and Product Development - The company is focused on expanding its market presence and enhancing its product offerings[191] - The group has developed a diverse product matrix including A2 milk, DHA milk, organic milk, and goat milk, while optimizing feed conversion and precise nutrition[77] - The group successfully launched its proprietary brand product "Ju Wei Dian" and established regional agency cooperation with strategic suppliers, enhancing market coverage and brand influence[96]

Summary of the Conference Call for YouRan Dairy Industry Company Overview - YouRan Dairy is a leader in the upstream dairy industry in China, covering cow breeding, feed production, and raw milk production, with raw milk accounting for approximately 75% of its business and feed accounting for 24% [3][5][6] - The company has over 600,000 dairy cows and a market share of nearly 10% in raw milk production, making it the largest dairy farming company in China [3][5] Industry Characteristics - The dairy farming industry is characterized by supply rigidity and strong cyclicality, with a minimum of 26 months required for cows to start lactating after birth, leading to significant delays in capacity adjustments [3] - The average production cost of raw milk in China is approximately 3.46 RMB/kg, while the latest fresh milk price is 3.08 RMB/kg, resulting in losses for many dairy companies [13] Financial Performance - YouRan Dairy has experienced steady revenue growth, but net profit has been volatile, primarily due to the fair value assessment of biological assets, with losses of 2.3 billion RMB in 2022 and 3.1 billion RMB in 2023 [3][9][10] - The company’s revenue is projected to be 22.84 billion RMB in 2025 and 26.26 billion RMB in 2026, with net profits of 930 million RMB and 2.3 billion RMB, respectively [20] Market Dynamics - The current raw milk price cycle has been declining for 45 months, with a total drop of 31.3% from the peak price of 4.5 RMB/kg in July 2021 to the current price of approximately 3.08 RMB/kg [12][18] - The supply-demand balance is expected to improve by the second half of 2025, with a projected price of around 4.2 RMB/kg by 2026 [19] Strategic Partnerships - YouRan Dairy is closely tied to Yili Group, which is both its largest shareholder (33.93%) and its largest customer, accounting for 96% of its raw milk sales in 2023 [3][6][7] - The partnership allows YouRan to maintain a high sales price, approximately 20% above the market average, while only meeting 20% of Yili's demand, indicating significant growth potential [3][7] Investment Outlook - The investment outlook for YouRan Dairy is positive, especially as the raw milk price cycle is expected to reverse, presenting potential investment opportunities despite inherent risks such as low raw milk prices and disease outbreaks [21][23] - The company’s stock price volatility is largely influenced by changes in the fair value of biological assets, which can lead to significant losses during price downturns [21] Additional Insights - The dairy farming sector is facing challenges due to increased supply and declining demand, with a 6.52% drop in dairy product revenue over the past three years [15] - The industry is divided into three categories: large dairy enterprises with self-owned farms, large dairy groups, and socialized farms, with the latter experiencing a significant decline in stock [17] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call regarding YouRan Dairy and the broader dairy industry, highlighting the company's market position, financial performance, and future outlook.

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, YouRan Agriculture [5]. Core Views - The report highlights that the raw milk industry is experiencing a cyclical downturn, but a reversal is expected soon due to supply adjustments and increasing demand [4][5]. - YouRan Agriculture is positioned as the leading raw milk supplier in China, benefiting from economies of scale and strong customer relationships, particularly with Yili Group [4][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Characteristics of the Raw Milk Industry - The raw milk industry is characterized by strong cyclicality, typically experiencing price fluctuations every five years, influenced by rigid supply and steadily increasing demand [3]. - Supply rigidity is due to the biological asset characteristics of dairy cows, which require at least 24 months from breeding to milk production, and the geographical concentration of production [3][4]. - High capital barriers exist for new entrants, with significant investment required to establish dairy farms, and strong quality requirements from large dairy enterprises [3][4]. 2. YouRan Agriculture Overview - YouRan Agriculture is the largest raw milk supplier in China, managing nearly 600,000 dairy cows across 96 farms, accounting for 9.7% of the national raw milk output [4]. - The company has a comprehensive supply chain covering breeding, feed, and milk production, achieving a milk yield of 12.6 tons per cow [4]. - The company has a strong customer base, with Yili Group being both the largest shareholder and customer, purchasing 12.45 billion yuan worth of raw milk in 2023, with prices approximately 20% higher than the market average [4]. 3. Raw Milk Price Cycle Characteristics - The current raw milk price cycle has been declining for 42 months since its peak in mid-2021, leading to significant capacity reduction in the industry [4]. - The report anticipates that by the second half of 2025, the raw milk industry will reach a supply-demand balance, leading to a price reversal [4][5]. 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation for YouRan Agriculture - The forecasted revenues for YouRan Agriculture from 2024 to 2026 are 2.086 billion, 2.284 billion, and 2.626 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to turn positive by 2025 [5]. - The report estimates that the company's earnings per share (EPS) will improve from -0.1 yuan in 2024 to 0.6 yuan in 2026, reflecting the anticipated recovery in raw milk prices [5].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, YouRan Agriculture [5]. Core Views - The report highlights that the raw milk industry is experiencing a cyclical downturn, but a reversal is expected soon due to supply adjustments and increasing demand [4][5]. - YouRan Agriculture is positioned as the leading raw milk supplier in China, benefiting from economies of scale and strong customer relationships, particularly with Yili Group [4][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Characteristics of the Raw Milk Industry - The raw milk industry is characterized by strong cyclicality, typically experiencing price fluctuations every five years, influenced by rigid supply and steadily increasing demand [3]. - Supply rigidity is due to the biological asset characteristics of dairy cows, which require at least 24 months from breeding to milk production, and the geographical concentration of production [3][4]. - High capital barriers exist for new entrants, with significant investment required to establish dairy farms, and strong quality requirements from large dairy enterprises [3][4]. 2. YouRan Agriculture Overview - YouRan Agriculture is the largest raw milk supplier in China, managing nearly 600,000 dairy cows across 96 farms, accounting for 9.7% of the national raw milk output [4]. - The company has a comprehensive supply chain covering breeding, feed, and milk production, achieving a milk yield of 12.6 tons per cow [4]. - In 2023, YouRan sold 12.45 billion yuan worth of raw milk to Yili Group, with a sales price approximately 20% higher than the market average [4]. 3. Raw Milk Price Cycle Characteristics - The current raw milk price cycle has been declining for 42 months since its peak in mid-2021, leading to significant capacity reduction in the industry [4]. - The report anticipates that by the second half of 2025, the raw milk market will reach a supply-demand balance, potentially reversing the price cycle [4][5]. 4. YouRan Agriculture's Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for YouRan's revenue from 2024 to 2026 is 2.086 billion, 2.284 billion, and 2.626 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to turn positive by 2025 [5]. - The report estimates that the company's earnings per share (EPS) will improve from -0.1 yuan in 2024 to 0.6 yuan in 2026, reflecting the anticipated recovery in raw milk prices [5].