Investment Rating - The report provides an investment rating for various companies in the consumer staples sector, with several companies rated as "Outperform" and one as "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that soybean prices have risen by more than 10% since the beginning of the year, impacting the cost structure of essential consumer goods [9]. - The cost indices for six categories of consumer goods showed mixed trends, with spot cost indices for instant noodles, soft drinks, frozen food, condiments, dairy products, and beer changing by +0.56%, +0.55%, +0.04%, -0.18%, -0.94%, and -1.89% respectively [42]. - The futures cost indices for the same categories changed by +1.22%, -0.27%, +0.41%, +0.28%, -1.38%, and -0.26% respectively [42]. Summary by Category Beer - As of June 27, the spot cost index for beer was 114.03, down 0.21% from the previous week, and the futures index was 114.41, down 0.30% [13]. - Year-to-date, the spot and futures indices have declined by 2.82% and 8.15% respectively [43]. Condiments - The spot cost index for condiments was 102.91, down 0.22%, while the futures index was 103, down 1.21% [17]. - Year-to-date changes were -0.34% for spot and -5.92% for futures [44]. Dairy Products - The spot cost index for dairy products was 103.80, down 0.02%, and the futures index was 95.23, down 0.77% [22]. - Fresh milk prices dropped to 3.04 yuan per kilogram, a 7.6% year-on-year decrease [45]. Instant Noodles - The spot cost index for instant noodles was 103.07, down 0.75%, and the futures index was 104.27, down 2.38% [27]. - Year-to-date declines were 2.81% for spot and 3.87% for futures [46]. Frozen Food - The spot cost index for frozen food was 119.28, up 0.02%, and the futures index was 118.82, down 1.35% [32]. - Year-to-date declines were 1.09% for spot and 1.86% for futures [47]. Soft Drinks - The spot cost index for soft drinks was 109.02, down 0.53%, while the futures index was 112.89, up 0.13% [36]. - Year-to-date declines were 3.36% for spot and 6.54% for futures [48].

Summary of the Conference Call for Yuran Dairy Industry Industry Overview - The dairy industry is expected to see a moderate recovery in milk prices in 2025, influenced by summer heat stress, mid-to-high-end dairy product consumption, and new national standards [2][3][4] - The original milk price is projected to stabilize in Q3 2025 and rise in Q4 2025, supported by cash flow pressures faced by social pastures during the silage procurement season [2][10] Key Points Milk Price Expectations - Milk prices are anticipated to rise to around 3.8 RMB/kg, with fluctuations expected to be moderate rather than drastic [4][22] - The average milk price for 2024 was 4.12 RMB/kg, with a sales cost of 2.77 RMB/kg, where feed costs accounted for approximately 70%-75% of total costs [2][21] Company Strategy and Performance - Yuran Dairy aims for a low single-digit growth in the number of dairy cows in 2025, with production and sales expected to exceed 4 million tons [2][5] - The company’s fresh milk pricing is above the market average, with a 2024 average of 4.12 RMB/kg compared to the national average of 3.32 RMB/kg [2][6] - The company plans to maintain a stable gross margin in 2025, benefiting from a recovery in beef prices which will reduce losses from culling [5][21] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The culling of dairy cows is accelerating due to rising beef prices, which are nearing 20 RMB/kg, alleviating cash flow pressures on pastures [2][9] - The number of dairy cows in China has been decreasing, with a monthly reduction of approximately 35,000 to 40,000 heads from January to April 2025, slowing to 10,000 heads in May [3][4] Cost and Profit Analysis - A change of 0.1 RMB/kg in milk price or cost is expected to impact annual net profit by approximately 400 million RMB [3][21] - The company’s average sales ratio remains stable at 97%-98%, with no sales pressure due to unlimited purchases from downstream clients [12] Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - There is a structural change in demand, with a shift from room temperature milk to low-temperature milk and an increase in the high-end segment of infant formula and elderly milk powder [10][11] - The company is exploring international markets, including Hong Kong and Southeast Asia, to expand its customer base [11] Future Outlook - The dairy industry is expected to stabilize and see a gradual recovery in milk prices, indicating that the most challenging period may be nearing its end [20][22] - The company is focusing on enhancing operational efficiency and maintaining a balanced supply-demand relationship to navigate future market fluctuations [22][29] Additional Insights - The company has expanded its product line to include goat milk, which is gaining popularity due to its digestibility [25] - The breeding business is progressing well, with a focus on improving the quality of dairy cows through advanced breeding techniques [26] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections discussed during the conference call, highlighting the strategic direction and market dynamics of Yuran Dairy Industry.

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the raw milk industry [1] Core Insights - The domestic raw milk market is expected to experience a reversal and upward trend in 2025, driven by a combination of domestic dairy cow culling and rising meat prices, alongside a reduction in imports [5][6] - The industry has faced a cumulative decline in raw milk prices for nearly four years, with significant losses reported [4][6] - The current reliance on imported whole milk powder to supplement domestic raw milk supply indicates a structural gap in production [30][32] Overview of the Industry - Raw milk is the core raw material for the dairy industry, with China being the fourth-largest milk producer globally, yet still dependent on imports to meet demand [3][17] - The domestic raw milk market has been under pressure due to overcapacity and declining prices since mid-2021, leading to significant financial losses for producers [4][59] Historical Review - The domestic raw milk price has experienced two major cycles since 2009, with the latest cycle starting in 2018, characterized by price recovery and capital expansion [4][56] - The current downturn has persisted since mid-2021, with prices dropping to around 3.40 yuan/kg, reflecting a cumulative decline of approximately 22% from the peak [59][63] Future Outlook - By the second half of 2025, raw milk prices are anticipated to rebound due to a reduction in domestic dairy cow numbers and a decrease in imports, as the overseas market has already begun to recover [5][63] - The report forecasts that the number of dairy cows in China will decrease to approximately 13 million by early 2025, returning to levels seen in 2019 [63] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The annual demand for raw milk in China is close to 4.5 million tons, with a supply gap of about 500,000 tons that is primarily filled by imports of whole milk powder [32][30] - The cost structure of raw milk production is heavily influenced by feed prices, which account for approximately 65% of the total production cost [23][24] Industry Structure - The dairy farming sector is capital-intensive, with large-scale operations benefiting from economies of scale and improved production efficiency [25][26] - Major dairy companies are increasingly integrating upstream to secure raw milk supply, indicating a trend towards consolidation in the industry [25][64]

Key Points - As of June 4, a total of 109 stocks reached their 52-week highs, with notable performers including 嘉鼎国际集团 (08153), 中国抗体－Ｂ (03681), and 升华兰德 (08106) achieving high rates of 37.84%, 32.89%, and 32.26% respectively [1] - The highest closing price among the top performers was 嘉鼎国际集团 at 0.405, while its peak price reached 0.510 [1] - 中国抗体－Ｂ closed at 2.850 with a peak of 2.990, and 升华兰德 closed at 0.142 with a peak of 0.164 [1] 52-Week High Rankings - 嘉鼎国际集团 (08153) had a high rate of 37.84% [1] - 中国抗体－Ｂ (03681) followed with a high rate of 32.89% [1] - 升华兰德 (08106) achieved a high rate of 32.26% [1] - Other notable stocks include 亿都（国际控股） with a high rate of 24.55% and 倍搏集团 with 23.59% [1] Additional Insights - The data indicates a strong performance in the market, with a significant number of stocks reaching new highs, suggesting potential bullish sentiment among investors [1] - The performance of these stocks may reflect broader trends in specific sectors, particularly in biotechnology and healthcare, as seen with the high rates of 中国抗体－Ｂ and 升华兰德 [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to several companies including Haidilao, China Feihe, and Yihai International, while Budweiser APAC is rated as "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the spot and futures cost of dairy products increased month-on-month, while most other consumer goods saw a decline in costs [2][38]. - The overall cost indices for six categories of consumer goods monitored by HTI mostly fell, with specific changes in spot and futures indices for soft drinks, condiments, dairy products, frozen foods, beer, and instant noodles [38]. Summary by Category Beer - The spot cost index decreased by 0.81% month-on-month, and the futures index decreased by 2.84% [39]. - Year-to-date, the spot and futures indices have cumulatively changed by -0.94% and -7.98% respectively [39][14]. Condiments - The spot cost index increased by 0.3% month-on-month, while the futures index decreased by 2.7% [40]. - Year-to-date, the spot and futures indices have cumulatively changed by -0.09% and -5.91% respectively [40][18]. Dairy Products - The spot cost index increased by 0.03% month-on-month, and the futures index increased by 0.33% [41]. - Year-to-date, the spot and futures indices have cumulatively changed by -0.02% and 2.38% respectively [41][22]. Instant Noodles - The spot cost index decreased by 1.22% month-on-month, and the futures index decreased by 1.26% [42]. - Year-to-date, the spot and futures indices have cumulatively changed by -3.31% and -4.11% respectively [42][26]. Frozen Foods - The spot cost index decreased by 0.57% month-on-month, and the futures index decreased by 0.74% [43]. - Year-to-date, the spot and futures indices have cumulatively changed by -1.52% and -2.32% respectively [43][30]. Soft Drinks - The spot cost index increased by 0.34% month-on-month, while the futures index decreased by 0.78% [34]. - Year-to-date, the spot and futures indices have cumulatively changed by -3.76% and -5.22% respectively [34][33].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [1][58]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 1.27% last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.09 percentage points, ranking 22nd among 31 sectors [4][10]. - The report highlights that the liquor industry is at a bottom valuation level, with expectations for demand recovery driven by policy support [4][5]. - The dairy sector is anticipated to stabilize in 2025 due to adjustments in production capacity and favorable policies [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector's performance was down 1.27%, with pre-processed foods showing a positive increase of 3.41% [4][10]. - Top-performing stocks included Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and others, while stocks like Western Pastoral and Shanxi Fenjiu faced significant declines [4][10]. 2. Key Consumption and Raw Material Prices - Liquor prices showed slight declines, with Moutai's retail price at 2080 RMB for scattered bottles, down 10 RMB from the previous month [22]. - Beer production in April 2025 reached 289.60 million hectoliters, a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [28]. - Dairy prices are stabilizing, with fresh milk priced at 12.15 RMB per liter, showing a slight decrease [30]. 3. Industry Dynamics - The report notes a significant increase in beer exports from Putian, Fujian, with a 28.6% rise in volume [54]. - The liquor production for the first four months of 2025 was 130.8 million hectoliters, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 7.8% [55]. 4. Core Company Developments - Kweichow Moutai is focusing on five key areas for development, including strengthening its core business and enhancing brand culture [4]. - Qingdao Beer is optimizing its resource allocation in southern markets and expanding its online retail capabilities [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market index [1][58]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 1.27% last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.09 percentage points, ranking 22nd among 31 sectors [4][10]. - The report highlights that the liquor industry is expected to stabilize, with major companies focusing on strategic initiatives to enhance brand value and market presence [4][5]. - The beer segment shows signs of improvement as the peak demand season approaches, with a year-on-year production increase of 4.8% in April 2025 [28]. - The snack food sector is characterized by high growth potential, driven by strong product categories and new distribution channels [4]. - The dairy industry is anticipated to see demand growth due to favorable policies, with milk prices expected to stabilize as supply-demand dynamics improve [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector's performance last week was a decline of 1.27%, with pre-processed foods showing a positive trend, increasing by 3.41% [4][10]. - Top-performing stocks included Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, while the worst performers were Western Pastoral and Shanxi Fenjiu [4][10]. 2. Key Consumption and Raw Material Prices - Liquor prices have shown fluctuations, with Moutai's retail price at 2080 RMB for scattered bottles, down 10 RMB from the previous week [22]. - Beer production in April reached 289.60 million hectoliters, reflecting a 4.8% year-on-year increase [28]. - Dairy prices as of May 16, 2025, include fresh milk at 12.15 RMB per liter, with a slight decrease compared to the previous week [30]. 3. Industry Dynamics - The report notes a 28.6% increase in beer exports from Putian, Fujian, indicating a growing international demand [54]. - The liquor production for the first four months of 2025 was 130.8 million hectoliters, down 7.8% year-on-year, with a significant drop in April [55]. 4. Core Company Developments - Major liquor companies are focusing on strategic initiatives to enhance brand strength and market stability, with Moutai emphasizing internationalization and youth engagement [4][5]. - Qingdao Beer is optimizing resource allocation in southern markets, aiming for growth above the company average [4].

行 业 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2025年05月22日 [table_invest] 超配 行 业 深 度 食 品 饮 -40% -29% -18% -7% 4% 15% 24-05 24-08 24-11 25-02 申万行业指数:食品饮料(0734) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] [Table_NewTitle 产能加快]调整，2025年奶价有望企稳 ——乳制品行业深度报告 [table_main] 投资要点： 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 料 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 姚星辰 S0630523010001 yxc@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] 26% 1.白酒底部区间，大众品关注高成长 性赛道 — — 食 品 饮 料 行 业 周 报 （2025/5/12-2025/5/18） 2.白酒压力释放，关注高景气品类— —食品饮料行业周报（2025/5/5- 2025/5/11） 3.安井食品（603345）：经营稳健， 方向明确——公司 ...

作者 | 周琳 主编 | 苏淮 从2023年开始，上市的影视、院线公司在投资者问答平台都免不了回答一个问题：公司有没有布局短剧 业务？能不能贡献营收？ 微短剧的火越烧越旺，明明被吐槽是下沉专属的"奶头乐"，但架不住"日充千万"的收益神话频频搅动市 场敏感的神经，影、剧、文三界的"老炮儿"全被拉到了赛场，只要旗下业务有一点沾边，就逃不过投资 者的灵魂拷问。 但在长剧集和电影上的优秀战绩，未必能延续到短剧领域。从目前短剧行业的格局来看，"正规军"中能 称为头部的选手寥寥，市场多是被一些MCN机构、直播平台以及成立不久的新公司占据。 源媒汇研究了目前头部的影视公司、网文平台在短剧领域的布局和发展情况，总的来讲，"正规军"对这 场战役还是较为谨慎的。尤其是上市公司，基本都停留在"有准备"的层面，已有项目落地的并不多。目 前表现较为亮眼的是柠萌影视（09858.HK)）和华策影视（300133.SZ）。 从短剧业务切入的难易程度到公司的市占率目标，再到微短剧的团队搭建情况和能力建设周期，机构对 于短剧这个资本市场热点抱有极大热情。 华策影视在此次问答中表示，公司从2022年开始关注并研究微短剧市场，从2023年6月开始 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides investment ratings for various companies in the consumer staples sector, with "Outperform" ratings for companies like Haidilao, China Feihe, and China Resources Beer, while Budweiser APAC is rated "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a mixed trend in the cost indices of six categories of consumer goods, with spot cost indices for beer, frozen food, dairy products, seasonings, instant noodles, and soft drinks showing changes of +2.69%, +1.67%, +1.09%, -0.12%, -0.18%, and -1.58% respectively, while futures cost indices showed changes of -3.78%, +1.38%, +0.46%, -1.64%, -1.64%, and -2.61% respectively [36]. Summary by Category Beer - The spot cost index for beer increased by 2.69% compared to last month, while the futures index decreased by 3.78%. Year-to-date, the spot index has changed by -0.08% and the futures index by -5.24% [12][37]. Seasonings - The spot cost index for seasonings decreased by 0.12%, and the futures index decreased by 1.64%. The price of soybeans has been rising due to limited domestic supply and decreased imports [16][38]. Dairy Products - The spot cost index for dairy products increased by 1.09%, and the futures index increased by 0.46%. Fresh milk prices have stabilized at 3.08 yuan per kilogram, with oversupply continuing to pressure prices [19][39]. Instant Noodles - The spot cost index for instant noodles decreased by 0.18%, and the futures index decreased by 1.64%. Palm oil prices have fallen due to increased production and inventory accumulation [24][40]. Frozen Food - The spot cost index for frozen food increased by 1.67%, and the futures index increased by 1.38%. Vegetable prices have decreased significantly due to increased supply [28][41]. Soft Drinks - The spot cost index for soft drinks decreased by 1.58%, and the futures index decreased by 2.61%. Prices are under pressure due to weak demand and capacity expansion [32][42].