优然牧业 20250401 摘要 Q&A 优然牧业 2024 年的奶价降幅比行业平均水平要好，是什么原因导致这一现 象？请详细拆分优质生鲜乳和特色生鲜乳的表现，并展望未来 2 到 3 年的奶价 趋势。 优然牧业 2024 年的平均奶价为每公斤 4.12 元，而全国平均奶价为每公斤 3.32 元。优然牧业的奶价降幅较小，主要得益于公司原奶结构的优势。公司拥有优 • 优然牧业 2024 年原奶均价为每公斤 3.32 元，受益于特色生鲜乳（占比 29%）的成本加成定价模式及南方牧场较高奶价，降幅小于行业平均水平。 预计未来几年特色生鲜乳占比略降至 25%-28%，优质生鲜乳产量增速或超 过特色生鲜乳。 • 2025 年一季度主要产区指导价环比略降至每公斤 3.09 元。预计上半年行 业持续出清，下半年消费回暖后或进入平衡状态，2026 年上游去产能加速 及下游消费复苏将推动行业进入紧平衡状态。 • 优然牧业公斤奶销售成本为每公斤 2.77 元，其中饲料成本占比 76%（每公 斤 2.1 元），现金成本约为每公斤 2.62 元。若考虑后备牛开支，每公斤现 金成本可能更高。目标是将 2025 年单产达到 13 吨，并将 ...

2025 年 04 月 01 日 原料奶业务增长强劲，成本管控能力突出 买入(首次) 事件 分析师：孙山山 S1050521110005 sunss@cfsc.com.cn 联系人：肖燕南 S1050123060024 xiaoyn@cfsc.com.cn 基本数据 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 优然牧业 恒生指数 相关研究 投资要点 ▌ 收入小幅增长，现金流表现较好 收入增长稳健，非现金项目影响利润表现。2024 年公司实现 营收 201 亿元，同增 7.5%；因生物资产公平值变动及资产减 值等非现金项目影响，2024 年归母净利润为-6.91 亿元。其 中，生物资产公平值变动亏损 39.2 亿元，物业及设备减值亏 损 5.1 亿元。调整后溢利表现亮眼，现金 EBITDA 率显著提 升。2024 年现金 EBITDA 为 53.25 亿元，同增 38.3%；现金 EBITDA 率达 26.5%，同比提升 5.9pcts。2024 年生物资产开 支为 40.7 亿元，同比基本持平。成本控制成效显著，费用率 略优化。20 ...

2025 年 04 月 01 日 原料奶业务增长强劲，成本管控能力突出 买入(首次) 事件 分析师：孙山山 S1050521110005 sunss@cfsc.com.cn 联系人：肖燕南 S1050123060024 xiaoyn@cfsc.com.cn 基本数据 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 优然牧业 恒生指数 相关研究 —优然牧业（9858.HK）公司事件点评报告 2025 年 3 月 28 日，优然牧业发布 2024 年业绩公告。 投资要点 ▌ 收入小幅增长，现金流表现较好 收入增长稳健，非现金项目影响利润表现。2024 年公司实现 营收 201 亿元，同增 7.5%；因生物资产公平值变动及资产减 值等非现金项目影响，2024 年归母净利润为-6.91 亿元。其 中，生物资产公平值变动亏损 39.2 亿元，物业及设备减值亏 损 5.1 亿元。调整后溢利表现亮眼，现金 EBITDA 率显著提 升。2024 年现金 EBITDA 为 53.25 亿元，同增 38.3%；现金 EBITDA 率达 26.5%，同比提升 ...

2024年，乳业上游龙头凭借战略定力与高效运营，交出一份逆势增长的成绩单。 3月28日，优然牧业(09858.HK)公布2024年业绩报告，显示其收入达200.96亿元，同比增长7.5%，行业 龙头领先优势再度扩大；由于经营现金流增加及固定资本开支有所收缩，2024年实现自由现金流转正， 实现2.4亿元；归母净利润同比大幅减亏34.2%，盈利水平进一步向好；现金EBITDA同比增长38.3%至 53.25亿元，经营现金流显著提升。 值得一提的是，2024年，优然牧业新投产运营了1座有机奶牧场和1座奶山羊牧场，为特色生鲜乳品类矩 阵增添了新活力。目前，优然牧业已开发并推出8种特色生鲜乳，特色生鲜乳品类日益丰富。特色生鲜 乳具有一定的稀缺性，受原料奶价格波动影响相对较小，且具有高附加值特色，高毛利优势明显。优然 牧业特色生鲜乳品类的扩充，将进一步满足市场多元化需求，高效提升其盈利能力与抗风险能力。 同期，在成本管控和运营效率方面，优然牧业财务指标持续向好。实现毛利率达28.8%，提升4.9个百分 点。有息负债率同比下降1.2个百分点，财务费用率同比下降1.3个百分点。 优然牧业运营效率得以提升、成本控制卓有成效及 ...

附 註： 本 公 司 董 事 會 欣 然 宣 佈 本 集 團 於 報 告 期 間 的 經 審 核 綜 合 業 績。 香 港 交 易 及 結 算 所 有 限 公 司 及 香 港 聯 合 交 易 所 有 限 公 司 對 本 公 告 之 內 容 概 不 負 責，對 其 準 確 性 或 完 整 性 亦 不 發 表 任 何 聲 明，並 明 確 表 示 概 不 對 因 本 公 告 全 部 或 任 何 部 分 內 容 而 產 生 或 因 倚 賴 該 等 內 容 而 引 致 之 任 何 損 失 承 擔 任 何 責 任。 於 本 公 告 內，「我 們」指 本 公 司 及 倘 文 義 另 有 所 指，則 指 本 集 團。 China Youran Dairy Group Limited 中國優然牧業集團有限公司 （於 開 曼 群 島 註 冊 成 立 的 有 限 公 司） （股 份 代 號：9858） – 2 – 1. 經 調 整 以 下 項 目 後 的 年 內 溢 利：(i)其 他 收 益 及 虧 損，(ii)預期信貸虧損模式下的減值虧損（扣 除 撥 回），(iii)就 商 譽 確 認 的 減 值 虧 損，(iv)就 物 業、廠 ...

Summary of the Conference Call for YouRan Dairy Industry Company Overview - YouRan Dairy is a leader in the upstream dairy industry in China, covering cow breeding, feed production, and raw milk production, with raw milk accounting for approximately 75% of its business and feed accounting for 24% [3][5][6] - The company has over 600,000 dairy cows and a market share of nearly 10% in raw milk production, making it the largest dairy farming company in China [3][5] Industry Characteristics - The dairy farming industry is characterized by supply rigidity and strong cyclicality, with a minimum of 26 months required for cows to start lactating after birth, leading to significant delays in capacity adjustments [3] - The average production cost of raw milk in China is approximately 3.46 RMB/kg, while the latest fresh milk price is 3.08 RMB/kg, resulting in losses for many dairy companies [13] Financial Performance - YouRan Dairy has experienced steady revenue growth, but net profit has been volatile, primarily due to the fair value assessment of biological assets, with losses of 2.3 billion RMB in 2022 and 3.1 billion RMB in 2023 [3][9][10] - The company’s revenue is projected to be 22.84 billion RMB in 2025 and 26.26 billion RMB in 2026, with net profits of 930 million RMB and 2.3 billion RMB, respectively [20] Market Dynamics - The current raw milk price cycle has been declining for 45 months, with a total drop of 31.3% from the peak price of 4.5 RMB/kg in July 2021 to the current price of approximately 3.08 RMB/kg [12][18] - The supply-demand balance is expected to improve by the second half of 2025, with a projected price of around 4.2 RMB/kg by 2026 [19] Strategic Partnerships - YouRan Dairy is closely tied to Yili Group, which is both its largest shareholder (33.93%) and its largest customer, accounting for 96% of its raw milk sales in 2023 [3][6][7] - The partnership allows YouRan to maintain a high sales price, approximately 20% above the market average, while only meeting 20% of Yili's demand, indicating significant growth potential [3][7] Investment Outlook - The investment outlook for YouRan Dairy is positive, especially as the raw milk price cycle is expected to reverse, presenting potential investment opportunities despite inherent risks such as low raw milk prices and disease outbreaks [21][23] - The company’s stock price volatility is largely influenced by changes in the fair value of biological assets, which can lead to significant losses during price downturns [21] Additional Insights - The dairy farming sector is facing challenges due to increased supply and declining demand, with a 6.52% drop in dairy product revenue over the past three years [15] - The industry is divided into three categories: large dairy enterprises with self-owned farms, large dairy groups, and socialized farms, with the latter experiencing a significant decline in stock [17] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call regarding YouRan Dairy and the broader dairy industry, highlighting the company's market position, financial performance, and future outlook.

公司深度研究报告 证券研究报告 2025/03/17 原奶周期反转在即，牧业龙头冬去春来 优然牧业（09858）深度研究报告—— 证券分析师: 程晓东 分析师登记编号: S1190511050002 证券分析师: 李忠华 分析师登记编号: S1190524090001 P2 报告摘要 原奶行业特点：1）周期性较强：近年来，原奶价格波动通常五年左右一个周期。周期性主要受两方面因素影响：首先， 供给具有刚性，一旦生产短缺，恢复起来需要2年以上的时间。其次，消费需求稳增。供给刚性主要由两方面因素决定： a.生物资产特点。奶牛这一生物资产生产周期较长，从补栏到原奶产出需要至少24个月；b.生产区域比较集中，难以扩 张。奶牛喜凉怕热，生产性能受温度影响较大，全球公认的"黄金奶源带"在我国仅占国土面积的15%。2）较高的资本 壁垒，目前投资新建奶牛场的投资额度较大，私人资本占比较小。3）下游客户稳定性较强，由于食品安全特殊性要求， 大型乳企对原奶质量要求非常高，新建牧场短时间内很难进入其供应链。 优然牧业为国内奶牛养殖第一龙头，集规模、成本和客户优势为一体。1）优然牧业是国内最大原奶供应商，产能规模 位居全国第一。现拥有 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, YouRan Agriculture [5]. Core Views - The report highlights that the raw milk industry is experiencing a cyclical downturn, but a reversal is expected soon due to supply adjustments and increasing demand [4][5]. - YouRan Agriculture is positioned as the leading raw milk supplier in China, benefiting from economies of scale and strong customer relationships, particularly with Yili Group [4][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Characteristics of the Raw Milk Industry - The raw milk industry is characterized by strong cyclicality, typically experiencing price fluctuations every five years, influenced by rigid supply and steadily increasing demand [3]. - Supply rigidity is due to the biological asset characteristics of dairy cows, which require at least 24 months from breeding to milk production, and the geographical concentration of production [3][4]. - High capital barriers exist for new entrants, with significant investment required to establish dairy farms, and strong quality requirements from large dairy enterprises [3][4]. 2. YouRan Agriculture Overview - YouRan Agriculture is the largest raw milk supplier in China, managing nearly 600,000 dairy cows across 96 farms, accounting for 9.7% of the national raw milk output [4]. - The company has a comprehensive supply chain covering breeding, feed, and milk production, achieving a milk yield of 12.6 tons per cow [4]. - In 2023, YouRan sold 12.45 billion yuan worth of raw milk to Yili Group, with a sales price approximately 20% higher than the market average [4]. 3. Raw Milk Price Cycle Characteristics - The current raw milk price cycle has been declining for 42 months since its peak in mid-2021, leading to significant capacity reduction in the industry [4]. - The report anticipates that by the second half of 2025, the raw milk market will reach a supply-demand balance, potentially reversing the price cycle [4][5]. 4. YouRan Agriculture's Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for YouRan's revenue from 2024 to 2026 is 2.086 billion, 2.284 billion, and 2.626 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to turn positive by 2025 [5]. - The report estimates that the company's earnings per share (EPS) will improve from -0.1 yuan in 2024 to 0.6 yuan in 2026, reflecting the anticipated recovery in raw milk prices [5].

证券研究报告：食品饮料 | 公司深度报告 2025 年 3 月 14 日 股票投资评级 买入|首次覆盖 个股表现 2024-02-20 2024-05-07 2024-07-25 2024-10-09 2024-12-19 2025/3/7 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 优然牧业 食品饮料 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（港币） 2.60 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）38.93 | / 38.93 | | | 总市值/流通市值（亿港 | 101.21 / 101.21 | | | 币） | | | | 52 周内最高/最低价 2.60 | / 1.03 | | | 资产负债率(%) | 68.71% | | | 市盈率 | -21.38 | | | 第一大股东 | PAGAC | Yogurt | | Holding | II Limited | | 研究所 分析师:蔡雪昱 SAC 登记编号:S1340522070001 Email:caixueyu@cnpsec.com 分析师: ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [2]. Core Insights - The dairy farming industry is cyclical, with supply being the main factor affecting cycles. The domestic supply of raw milk is approximately 87%, while imports account for about 13%. The report anticipates a stabilization and potential increase in raw milk prices by 2025 due to industry capacity reduction [5][6][16]. - The company, YouRan Dairy, is the largest raw milk supplier globally and has a comprehensive business model covering the entire dairy industry chain. The report highlights that the company is expected to see significant improvements in apparent profits as raw milk prices rise [7][27]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - YouRan Dairy's latest closing price is HKD 2.60, with a total market capitalization of HKD 101.21 billion. The company has a total share capital of 3.893 billion shares and an asset-liability ratio of 68.71% [4]. Industry Analysis - The report notes that the dairy industry is experiencing a reduction in capacity, with a 2.1% year-on-year decline in the national dairy cow inventory from January to October 2023. This reduction is expected to lead to a supply gap in 2026-2027 [6][23]. - The average price of raw milk fell below the cost of production, leading to significant losses in the industry. The average price in Q4 2024 is projected to be 3.11 CNY/kg, while the average cost of production is 3.3 CNY/kg [6][19]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for YouRan Dairy are as follows: 2024 expected revenue of CNY 210.12 billion, 2025 at CNY 224.83 billion, and 2026 at CNY 242.81 billion, representing growth rates of 12.40%, 7.00%, and 8.00% respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to improve significantly from a loss of CNY 0.05 billion in 2024 to a profit of CNY 23.69 billion in 2026 [8][44]. - The report anticipates that the company's EBITDA will increase from CNY 7.69 billion in 2024 to CNY 45.40 billion in 2026, indicating a strong recovery in profitability as raw milk prices rise [8][44]. Market Position - YouRan Dairy's largest shareholder is Yili, which also accounts for 94.28% of the company's raw milk sales. This close relationship is expected to enhance operational synergies [31][30]. - The company has a diversified product matrix, including various types of specialty fresh milk products, which positions it well in the market [27]. Cash Flow Analysis - The company's operating cash flow has shown consistent growth, reaching CNY 33.43 billion in the first half of 2024, significantly higher than its reported profits, indicating strong operational health [37][39].