本报告导读： 公司推动牛群结构优化，成母牛比例持续提升；淘牛增长拖累生物资产减值，公司 自由现金流显著改善。伴随着肉奶周期反转，公司盈利弹性较强。 投资要点： 存栏优化，拐点向上 优然牧业(9858) 优然牧业 2025 年年报点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 訾猛(分析师) | 021-38676442 | zimeng@gtht.com | S0880513120002 | | 颜慧菁(分析师) | 021-23183952 | yanhuijing@gtht.com | S0880525040022 | | 张嘉颖(分析师) | 021-23185613 | zhangjiaying@gtht.com | S0880525040117 | | 财务摘要(百万人民币) | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 20096 | 20654 | 21879 | 2390 ...

Group 1: 康方生物 - Company maintains a "Buy" rating for 康方生物 with a target price of HKD 185.80, expecting product sales revenue to reach HKD 3 billion in 2025, a 52% year-on-year increase, driven by Cadonilimab and Ivonescimab entering the national medical insurance directory [1] - Ivonescimab has shown significant improvement in progression-free survival in head-to-head Phase III clinical trials, with key global data readout imminent [1] - The FDA review target date for EGFR-TKI resistant NSCLC indication is set for November 2026, potentially marking the company's first FDA-approved product [1] Group 2: 中国铁塔 - Company maintains a "Hold" rating for 中国铁塔 with a target price of HKD 12.10, projecting a 2.7% revenue growth to HKD 100.4 billion in 2025, and an 8.4% net profit increase to HKD 11.6 billion [1] - Revenue from the communication tower business is expected to decline by 0.3% year-on-year due to continued capital expenditure reductions from the three major operators [1] - DAS and "two wings" businesses are anticipated to maintain double-digit growth, contributing to revenue diversification [1] Group 3: 信达生物 - Company maintains a "Buy" rating for 信达生物 with a target price of HKD 113.86, forecasting a first-time annual profit of HKD 834 million in 2025, with product sales revenue reaching HKD 11.9 billion, a 45% year-on-year increase [2] - Key growth drivers include newly launched products Mazdutide, PCSK9 monoclonal antibody, and IGF-1R antibody [2] - Collaboration with Takeda to advance IBI363 into global Phase III clinical trials, with multiple assets entering or nearing global multi-center Phase III [2] Group 4: TCL电子 - Company maintains a "Buy" rating for TCL电子, expecting 2025 revenue of HKD 114.6 billion, a 15.4% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of HKD 2.5 billion, a 41.8% increase [3] - Growth is primarily driven by a 15.7% increase in overseas television revenue, a doubling of Mini LED shipments, and a 63.6% surge in photovoltaic business revenue [3] - Joint venture with Sony is imminent, expected to enhance high-end channel access and improve profitability [3] Group 5: 小马智行-W - Company maintains a "Buy" rating for 小马智行-W with a target price of HKD 195, projecting a 129% year-on-year increase in Robotaxi revenue in 2025 [4] - Achieved positive unit economics in Guangzhou and Shenzhen, with peak daily revenue per vehicle reaching HKD 394 [4] - The BOM cost of the seventh-generation model has decreased by 20% compared to the previous generation, with plans to expand the fleet to 3,000 vehicles [4] Group 6: 优然牧业 - Company maintains a "Buy" rating for 优然牧业, forecasting a 13.2% increase in raw milk sales volume to 4.15 million tons in 2025, with per cow production rising to 12.8 tons/year [5] - Feed cost per kilogram of milk is expected to decrease by 10.5%, with cash EBITDA reaching HKD 5.59 billion, a 4.9% year-on-year growth [5] - Anticipation of a dual-cycle resonance point for milk and meat prices in 2026 due to ongoing industry capacity reduction and rising beef prices [5] Group 7: 移卡 - Company maintains an "Outperform" rating for 移卡 with a target price of HKD 8.90, projecting a domestic payment rate increase to 12.3 bps and a 3.2-fold increase in overseas GPV to HKD 4.7 billion in 2025 [6] - This growth is expected to drive an 8% increase in acquiring revenue [6] - Integration of AI throughout the operational process has led to a 13% reduction in sales and management expenses, with core EBITDA growing by 53% to HKD 350 million [6] Group 8: 中国民航信息网络 - Company maintains a "Buy" rating for 中国民航信息网络 with a target price of HKD 15.70, expecting a 4.9% growth in aviation information technology processing volume and an 18.8% increase in revenue from smart travel products and services in 2025 [7] - Revenue from airport digital services is projected to decline by 20.8% due to construction schedule impacts, but significant cost reductions in depreciation and amortization are expected to enhance operating profit margins by 3.6 percentage points to 30.9% [7] Group 9: 碧桂园服务 - Company maintains an "Accumulate" rating for 碧桂园服务 with a target price of HKD 7.24, forecasting a 10% revenue growth to HKD 48.35 billion in 2025, while core net profit is expected to decline by 17% to HKD 2.52 billion [8] - The decline is attributed to pressure on community value-added services and increased impairment of receivables [8] - Annualized revenue growth from market expansion is projected to reach 87% to HKD 2.03 billion, with a significant increase in shareholder returns, raising the dividend payout ratio to 60% [8] Group 10: 赤子城科技 - Company maintains an "Accumulate" rating for 赤子城科技, projecting a 32.9% year-on-year increase in social business revenue to HKD 6.14 billion in 2025 [9] - Revenue from SUGO and TopTop is expected to grow by over 80% and 70%, respectively, with rapid expansion in emerging markets such as Latin America and Japan [9] - Innovative business revenue is projected to grow by 59.3%, driven by the launch of AI self-developed models Boomiix and creative community Aippy, forming a second growth curve through "diversified matrix + global expansion" [9]

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告之內容概不負責， 對 其 準 確 性 或 完 整 性 亦 不 發 表 任 何 聲 明，並 明 確 表 示，概 不 對 因 本 公 告 全 部 或 任 何 部 分 內 容 而 產 生 或 因 倚 賴 該 等 內 容 而 引 致 之 任 何 損 失 承 擔 任 何 責 任。 China Youran Dairy Group Limited 中國優然牧業集團有限公司 （於 開 曼 群 島 註 冊 成 立 的 有 限 公 司） （股 份 代 號：9858） 有關奶牛採購框架協議之持續關連交易 奶牛採購框架協議 於2026年3月27日，本 公 司 與 優 源 牧 業 訂 立 奶 牛 採 購 框 架 協 議，據 此，本 集 團 同 意 向 優 源 牧 業 採 購 奶 牛，期 限 為2026年4月1日起至2027年3月31日 止。 上市規則的涵義 伊 利 為 本 公 司 的 控 股 股 東，故 根 據 上 市 規 則 為 本 公 司 的 關 連 人 士。由 於 優 源 牧 業 為 伊 利 的 非 全 資 附 屬 公 司，根 據 上 市 規 則，亦 為 本 公 司 的 ...

香 港 交 易 及 結 算 所 有 限 公 司 及 香 港 聯 合 交 易 所 有 限 公 司 對 本 公 告 之 內 容 概 不 負 責，對 其 準 確 性 或 完 整 性 亦 不 發 表 任 何 聲 明，並 明 確 表 示，概 不 對 因 本 公 告 全 部 或 任 何 部 分 內 容 而 產 生 或 因 倚 賴 該 等 內 容 而 引 致 之 任 何 損 失 承 擔 任 何 責 任。 China Youran Dairy Group Limited 中國優然牧業集團有限公司 （於 開 曼 群 島 註 冊 成 立 的 有 限 公 司） （股 份 代 號：9858） 截 至2025年12月31日止年度之年度業績公告 | 摘 | 要 | 至12月31日止年度 | 截 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年 | 2024年 | 同比變動 | 人民幣千元 | 人民幣千元 | ( ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector as it is expected to outperform the benchmark index [4]. Core Insights - The white liquor sector is in a bottoming phase, with a focus on cost transmission in the consumer goods segment. The industry is shifting from channel competition to consumer engagement and cultivation [8][26]. - The report highlights that 2026 will be a critical year for the industry, with an emphasis on inventory reduction and channel profit recovery in the first half, while the second half will see a transition towards consumer-centric strategies [9][19]. Summary by Sections Overall Feedback from Spring Sugar 2026 - The Spring Sugar event saw fewer participating companies and personnel compared to previous years, with major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye canceling events, indicating a shift in focus towards consumer operations and brand value [8][9]. - The white liquor sector is experiencing increased differentiation in sales performance, with stable pricing and cautious but calm sentiments among distributors. The expectation is for a stabilization year in 2026, with a focus on inventory management and profit recovery [10][11]. White Liquor Sector - Sales performance is showing signs of differentiation, with Moutai stabilizing and Wuliangye expected to follow suit. The overall sentiment is that the sector is still in a bottoming process, with a focus on inventory reduction and profit recovery [10][12]. - The report anticipates that 2026 will be a year of price stabilization, with major brands not setting aggressive sales targets, leading to improved cash flow for distributors [10][19]. Consumer Goods Sector - The report notes improvements in the restaurant chain sector, slight growth in dairy products, and continued stability in beverages and snacks. Key players in the restaurant chain are expected to see operational improvements in Q1 2026 [11][12]. - Dairy product companies like Mengniu and Yili are projected to experience single-digit growth in shipments, while beverage leaders like Nongfu Spring are expected to maintain robust growth [12][19]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on cyclical improvements in the restaurant chain sector, recommending companies such as Haitian Flavoring and Yihai International. It also highlights the potential for recovery in the dairy sector with companies like Yili and Mengniu [26]. - In the beverage sector, Nongfu Spring is recommended due to its strong performance and favorable valuation outlook for 2026 [26]. Company-Specific Feedback - Wuliangye is expected to stabilize in 2026, with a focus on inventory management and pricing strategies. The company has seen significant growth in sales compared to previous years [13][19]. - Moutai's pricing strategy and inventory management are expected to support its market position, with a focus on maintaining stable prices and improving distributor confidence [19][22].

上 市 公 司 食品饮料 2026 年 03 月 26 日 优然牧业 (09858) ——肉牛与原奶周期有望共振向上，龙头牧场业绩弹性可期 报告原因：首次覆盖 买入（首次评级） | 市场数据： | 2026 年 03 月 25 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 3.90 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8582.74 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 5.29/2.08 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 163.49 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 4,191.98 | | 汇率（港币/人民币） | 0.8809 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -16% 184% 03/25 04/25 05/25 06/25 07/25 08/25 09/25 10/25 11/25 12/25 01/25 02/25 03/25 HSCEI 优然牧业 投资要点： 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 18,694 | 20,0 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a neutral investment rating for the agricultural sector, indicating that the expected changes in the industry will be relatively stable compared to the broader market [70]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index has underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly decline of 4.50% [13]. - The report highlights ongoing pressures in the pig farming industry, with prices expected to continue declining due to supply-side pressures and a potential increase in slaughter volumes [3][21]. - In poultry farming, while white feather chicken prices remain under pressure, yellow feather chicken prices have shown resilience due to improved downstream demand [4][35]. - The beef market is anticipated to see price increases as it enters the consumption peak season, while dairy cow inventories are decreasing, indicating a potential recovery in milk prices [5][39][42]. - The planting sector is experiencing tight supply and demand dynamics, with corn prices showing slight upward movement amid external uncertainties [6][45][46]. - Feed prices have stabilized, and the aquaculture sector is showing signs of improvement in pricing [56]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural index closed at 2928.56 points, down 4.50% week-on-week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [13][14]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Pig Farming - The average price of live pigs is 9.90 yuan/kg, with a weekly decline of 1.79%. The average weight of pigs at slaughter is 128.62 kg, indicating a slight increase [21][22]. - The report anticipates further price declines in the short term due to supply pressures and ongoing losses in the sector [3][22]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - The average price for white feather chickens is 7.33 yuan/kg, showing a weekly increase of 1.66%. The profitability of parent stock and broiler chickens has improved slightly [34][35]. 2.3 Livestock - Live cattle prices in Shandong are 27.03 yuan/kg, with a year-on-year increase of 13.86%. The report expects beef prices to rise as the consumption season approaches [5][40][42]. 2.4 Planting Industry - Domestic corn prices are 2332.86 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 0.18% week-on-week. The report notes potential improvements in the planting sector if there are significant reductions in grain production [6][45][46]. 2.5 Feed & Aquaculture - Feed prices for fattening pigs are 3.36 yuan/kg, showing a weekly increase of 0.30%. Aquaculture prices for various species have remained stable [56].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the food and beverage industry [5] Core Insights - The retail sales growth has accelerated, with a focus on feedback from the Spring Sugar Festival. The report suggests that the overall rhythm of the liquor industry is expected to improve on a month-on-month basis, with key recommendations including leading companies like Kweichow Moutai and others focusing on supply clearance [1][2] - The beer sector is witnessing a recovery, with a notable increase in beer production and the launch of new products, indicating a positive trend in consumer demand [3] - The food sector shows a recovery in retail sales, particularly in the restaurant segment, which is expected to drive opportunities in related supply chains [4][7] Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - Jinhuijiu reported a revenue of 2.918 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 3.4%, while Shide Jiuye reported a revenue of 4.42 billion yuan, down 17.5% year-on-year. The report highlights a significant divergence in performance among liquor companies, with Kweichow Moutai leading the recovery through reforms [2] - Jinhuijiu's product structure upgrade is notable, with high-end products (above 300 yuan) increasing by 25.21% year-on-year, while low-end products (below 100 yuan) decreased by 36.88% [2] Beer and Beverage Sector - In the beer segment, the cumulative production of major enterprises reached 5.797 million kiloliters in January-February 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.5%. The launch of the new Yanjing A10 product is expected to enhance market presence [3] - The beverage sector is characterized by intense competition, with companies launching new products to capture market share. Notable new releases include flavored waters and teas targeting specific consumer scenarios [3] Food Sector - Retail sales in the food sector increased by 2.8% year-on-year in January-February 2026, with restaurant income growing by 4.8%. This growth is attributed to the recovery of consumer spending and seasonal factors [4][7] - Wanchen Group reported a record high net profit margin of 5.7% in Q4 2025, indicating strong profitability and market expansion potential [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights a steady recovery in social retail sales data for January-February 2026, with significant growth in essential food and beverage categories, particularly benefiting from concentrated consumption during the Spring Festival [3][4] - The food and beverage sector is currently at a low market expectation and valuation, indicating a likely rebound in capital allocation intentions [3] - Key recommendations include prioritizing leading companies in the liquor sector, such as Kweichow Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu, while also focusing on snack foods, dairy products, and the restaurant supply chain [3][4] Monthly Observation - In January-February 2026, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.8% year-on-year, with a month-on-month growth of 1.9 percentage points compared to December 2025 [4] - The food and beverage categories saw year-on-year increases of 10.2% for grain and oil products, 6.0% for beverages, and 19.1% for tobacco and alcohol, with significant month-on-month improvements [4][11][16] Quarterly Observation - It is anticipated that the retail sales data for Q1 2026 will show a good recovery, particularly in grain, oil, and tobacco categories, driven by the Spring Festival consumption [5] - The expected year-on-year growth rates for grain and oil products, beverages, and tobacco in January-February 2026 are 3.9 percentage points, 2.0 percentage points, and 20.1 percentage points, respectively, compared to Q4 2025 [5] Industry Observation - The high-end liquor segment demonstrates strong resilience, with core products from Moutai and Wuliangye showing positive year-on-year sales growth during the Spring Festival [6] - The restaurant sector continues to recover, with stable growth in B-end consumption and solid demand in C-end markets, indicating improved profitability for leading restaurant companies [6]

Group 1: Swine Breeding - The swine breeding industry is entering its "darkest hour," with prices rapidly declining and expected to continue to drop, leading to increased cash flow pressure and accelerated capacity reduction [3][13][14] - The average price of live pigs has fallen below 10 yuan/kg, marking a new low since 2022, with significant supply pressure expected to persist [13][14] - The industry has experienced a prolonged period of losses, with average losses per head reaching 237.98 yuan for self-bred pigs and 58.89 yuan for purchased piglets [13][14] Group 2: Agricultural Products - Rising crude oil prices are anticipated to reverse the downward trend in agricultural product prices, with a potential rebound in grain prices supported by biofuel demand and rising agricultural input costs [3][44] - Major agricultural products in China have seen price declines over the past three years, with wheat, corn, and soybeans experiencing maximum drops of 25.8%, 28.4%, and 34.4% respectively [44][45] - Since January 2025, agricultural prices have begun to recover, with increases of approximately 5% to 15% observed by February 2026 [44][45] Group 3: Livestock Industry - The beef market is expected to see a leading reversal, with prices likely to accelerate upward, while raw milk prices are still bottoming out, indicating an approaching turning point [3][5] - The beef supply is anticipated to contract significantly in 2026, following a period of deep capacity reduction [3][5] - The "meat and milk resonance" cycle is expected to commence as the beef market recovers [3][5] Group 4: Pet Food Industry - The domestic pet food market continues to grow steadily, with leading brands increasing their market share [3][5] - The export business is expected to improve gradually, and a performance turning point is anticipated in the financial reports [3][5] - Leading companies are focusing on functional and prescription pet food, which is expected to enhance profitability [3][5] Group 5: Key Companies to Watch - Key companies in the swine breeding sector include Muyuan Foods, Dekang Agriculture, Wens Foodstuff, Shennong Group, Tiankang Biological, Youran Agriculture, Modern Farming, Zhongxing Mushroom Industry, Hualv Biological, and Guibao Pet [3][5]