黄金价格低位反弹，关注上方压力位空单布局

Core Viewpoint - The current fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by geopolitical tensions and U.S. trade policies, particularly tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which are expected to provide support for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices are currently trading around $3,330 per ounce, showing slight increases due to safe-haven demand amid tariff announcements from Trump [1]. - Despite a recent rise in the U.S. dollar index, which reached a high of 98.70, the market interprets this as a technical adjustment rather than a long-term trend shift, suggesting potential for gold price recovery [1][3]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies is likely to support gold prices, as market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic despite short-term price fluctuations [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Policy - Market expectations indicate a potential interest rate cut of about 44 basis points by the end of the year, with a decrease in the probability of a September rate cut from 80% to 53% [4]. - Fed Chairman Powell's cautious stance on inflation suggests that the Fed may remain vigilant regarding interest rate adjustments, which could impact gold prices [4]. - The upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) data is critical, as it may confirm inflation pressures and influence market expectations regarding interest rate cuts [4][5]. Group 3: Investment Outlook - The gold market presents both challenges and opportunities, with short-term price movements expected to remain within the $3,300 to $3,400 range [5]. - Long-term factors such as geopolitical risks, inflation expectations, and a trend towards looser monetary policy could provide upward momentum for gold prices [5][6]. - Investors are advised to closely monitor PPI data and developments in U.S. tariff policies, as well as trends in the dollar and bond yields, to identify investment opportunities in the gold market [6].