美6月核心CPI低于预期，降息预期降温，金价回落

Group 1 - The international gold price experienced fluctuations, closing at $3323.13 per ounce on July 15, and rebounding to $3325.49 per ounce on July 16, reflecting a slight increase of 0.07% [3] - The gold ETF fund (159937) declined by 0.74% on July 16, with a turnover rate of 0.8% and a transaction amount of 228 million yuan [1] - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year as of June, marking the fifth consecutive month of core inflation falling below expectations, which has put pressure on precious metals [3][8] Group 2 - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in July is 97.4%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is only 2.6% [8] - Analysts from CITIC Securities suggest that the recent soft core inflation data does not support the notion that tariffs have a minimal impact on inflation, indicating potential inflation rebound risks in the U.S. [8] - The gold ETF funds are designed to closely track domestic gold prices, offering low thresholds and diverse trading forms, which may provide long-term investment value due to their role in hedging against tail risks [9]