关税动荡与降息阶段并行，金价下半年预计宽幅震荡后可能上涨

Core Viewpoint - The global central banks are accumulating gold at the fastest pace in three years, while gold prices are experiencing significant volatility due to trade policies and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][3]. Group 1: Impact of Tariffs - The increase in steel tariffs from 25% to 30% by the Trump administration has created a delayed impact on the market, with costs expected to rise significantly in the coming months [3]. - A 1% increase in tariffs could lead to an additional cost of $24 billion for American consumers [3]. - The automotive industry is particularly vulnerable, with potential cost increases of 20% once existing inventory is depleted [3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal divisions regarding interest rate cuts, with at least six members advocating for immediate cuts while others caution against premature action [4][5]. - The market is betting heavily on a total of 100 basis points in rate cuts this year, leading to significant inflows into gold ETFs [4][5]. - Recent CPI data showing a drop to 3.1% has further fueled expectations for rate cuts, impacting gold prices [5]. Group 3: Central Banks' Gold Purchases - Emerging market central banks have been net buyers of gold for nine consecutive months, with significant purchases from Turkey and India [7][9]. - Poland's central bank has notably completed 60% of its goal to purchase 100 tons of gold within the first half of the year [9]. - Despite a 3% drop in gold prices in June, central bank purchases surged by 40% year-over-year, indicating strong demand [9]. Group 4: Market Volatility and Trading Behavior - Gold prices have shown extreme volatility, with significant daily fluctuations driven by geopolitical events and Federal Reserve signals [10]. - The gold-silver ratio has increased to 88:1, indicating a shift in investment strategies towards silver mining stocks [11]. - The market remains uncertain, with ongoing pressures from tariffs and interest rate expectations creating both risks and opportunities for investors [13].