印尼坐拥全球60%镍储量，65%产能却血亏停产，300亿出口化泡影

Core Insights - The nickel prices on the London Metal Exchange have plummeted to a five-year low of $14,000 per ton, nearing Indonesia's production cost of $9,000 to $10,000, leading to the shutdown of numerous nickel smelting plants [2] - Indonesia's nickel industry has dramatically shifted from a minor player with a 6% share in the global refined nickel market four years ago to a dominant position with a 65% share in 2024, showcasing an annual production capacity of 2.2 million tons [4] - The initial expectation was that Indonesia's nickel industry would thrive, contributing $30 billion in annual exports and creating hundreds of thousands of jobs, but the reality has turned into a nightmare [4] Market Dynamics - Indonesia's miscalculation regarding China's nickel demand led to a ban on nickel ore exports in 2020, aiming to secure Chinese investment in its processing facilities [6][8] - The rapid advancement of battery technology in China, particularly the rise of lithium iron phosphate batteries, has reduced the necessity for nickel, leading to a significant decrease in demand [10] - By the end of 2024, China is expected to increase its strategic nickel reserves by 100,000 tons, capitalizing on the low nickel prices [12] Industry Challenges - Indonesia now faces a paradox of having the world's largest nickel production capacity while becoming a victim of market changes, with domestic consumption unable to keep pace, leading to imports of nickel ore from the Philippines [14] - The broader trend of "de-China" has led many countries to pursue similar ambitions in critical mineral sectors, but without the necessary technological capabilities, they face significant challenges [18] Technological Implications - The success of China's nickel industry is attributed to technological innovation rather than mere resource extraction, with a focus on the entire supply chain from mining to recycling [21] - Countries attempting to replicate China's model must recognize that resource abundance alone is insufficient; technological prowess and strategic stability are crucial for success [25][28]