赵锡军：广义货币增速大于狭义货币，货币活力的提升空间很大

Core Viewpoint - Despite facing significant pressures and challenges, the financial sector has shown strong performance, supported by effective financial policies implemented in September 2022 and May 2023 [2][3]. Economic Performance - In the first half of 2023, China's GDP reached 66,053.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [3]. - Monetary indicators showed steady growth, with broad money supply increasing by 8.3%, RMB loans growing by 7.1%, and social financing scale rising by 8.9% [3]. Interest Rates and Financial Support - The cost of funds has been decreasing, with the weighted average interbank lending rate falling from 1.86% in January to 1.46% in June, and the pledged repo rate decreasing from 2.16% to 1.5% during the same period [3]. - The structure of policies is improving, with increased credit support for inclusive finance, green finance, and technology innovation finance, all showing loan growth rates higher than the overall loan growth [3]. Market Confidence - The capital market has been recovering, with the Shanghai Composite Index recently surpassing 3,500 points, indicating improved market confidence and expectations [3]. Challenges and Pressures - Despite the positive performance in the financial sector, challenges remain, particularly in the monetary realm where the growth rate of broad money exceeds that of narrow money, indicating potential for increased monetary vitality [4]. - While RMB deposits increased significantly, corporate investment and consumer spending still face considerable pressure [4]. - The social financing scale showed a year-on-year growth of 8.9% by the end of June, largely driven by government bond financing, highlighting the need for effective coordination and utilization of funds [4].