Core Viewpoint - The inflation effects of Trump's tariffs are becoming evident, with the latest data showing an acceleration in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in June, indicating that tariff costs are being passed from businesses to consumers, potentially leading to stagflation in the U.S. economy [1][5][9] Economic Indicators - In June, the CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from May, and a month-on-month rise of 0.3%, up by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [1][6] - The "super core inflation," which excludes food, energy, and housing, increased by 0.12% month-on-month in June, significantly higher than the previous two months' increases of 0.01% and 0.07% [1][6] Tariff Impact - The tariffs introduced on April 2 have begun to affect prices, particularly in sectors like furniture and toys, which are sensitive to tariff changes [5][6] - Analysts suggest that the impact of tariffs on inflation was initially muted due to inventory buffers, but as these buffers deplete, the inflationary effects will become more pronounced [6][9] Consumer and Business Costs - Goldman Sachs estimates that businesses will pass approximately 70% of the tariff costs onto consumers, with the remaining 30% absorbed by businesses and foreign exporters [7] - The annual inflation expectations among the public have risen to 4.9%, with long-term expectations reaching 3.9%, the highest since 1993 [8] Economic Growth Projections - The U.S. GDP growth is expected to slow significantly, with various institutions revising their forecasts downwards for 2025, indicating a potential growth rate of 1.3% to 1.7% [9][10] - The Federal Reserve may face constraints on its ability to lower interest rates due to rising inflation pressures, with the next potential rate cut not expected until September [9][10]
特朗普关税对通胀的影响开始显现，美国经济滞胀风险上升
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-07-16 05:11