煤炭行业观察：高温推升动力煤需求；反内卷重塑焦煤格局

Group 1 - The coal market is showing differentiation due to high temperatures and the ongoing "anti-involution" policy, with thermal coal prices expected to rise supported by seasonal electricity demand, while coking coal prices stabilize due to supply adjustments and demand replenishment [1] - The daily consumption of thermal coal by power plants in eight coastal provinces has exceeded 2.148 million tons, leading to a continuous release of procurement demand, with spot prices for thermal coal rising from 609 CNY/ton to 632 CNY/ton, an increase of 3.8% [2] - Domestic coal supply growth is limited due to high production baselines and safety production pressures during the rainy season, with the operating rate in Shanxi dropping to 70.1% and port inventories decreasing by 19% compared to the peak in the first half of the year [3] Group 2 - Despite short-term demand recovery, the coal industry faces long-term pressure from clean energy alternatives, with thermal power generation decreasing by 72.5 billion kWh in the first five months, leading to a declining share of coal in primary energy consumption [4] - The "anti-involution" policy is driving adjustments in the coking coal market by eliminating low-price competition and accelerating the elimination of backward production capacity, with coking coal prices rebounding by 9.76% to 1,350 CNY/ton [5] - Downstream steel mills maintain high average daily pig iron production of 2.4 million tons, but with the arrival of the summer construction off-season and narrowed export windows, there may be downward pressure on pig iron production [6] Group 3 - The current "anti-involution" policy emphasizes market orientation and structural optimization, aiming to enhance the proportion of advanced production capacity and optimize resource allocation, which may lead to profits concentrating among leading companies [7]