Core Insights - The article discusses the structural issues facing the US Treasury market, including rising debt levels, declining liquidity, and increasing volatility, which undermine the credibility of the international monetary system [2][5] - The US is facing a "trilemma" where it cannot simultaneously achieve policy stimulus, controlled inflation, and sustainable debt, primarily due to inconsistencies in fiscal expansion, constrained monetary policy, and politicized debt management [2][17] Fiscal Expansion Paradox - The US national debt has surpassed $36.2 trillion, with public debt around $29 trillion, and is projected to increase by $3 trillion to $4 trillion by the end of Trump's second term [5] - Fiscal expansion policies, while providing short-term economic boosts, exacerbate long-term debt accumulation and inflation pressures, leading to a conflict between short-term growth and long-term sustainability [6][8] - The debt-interest spiral is evident, with interest payments on the national debt expected to reach $1.2 trillion by 2025, increasing the cost of borrowing and creating a vicious cycle of high rates leading to higher debt [6][8] Monetary Policy Constraints - The Federal Reserve faces challenges in achieving its goals of full employment, price stability, and moderate long-term interest rates, with the federal funds rate currently between 4.25% and 4.5% [11] - High interest rates increase debt service costs, which crowd out fiscal space and suppress investment and consumption, while the Fed's rate hikes have led to financial instability in institutions like Silicon Valley Bank [11][12] - The yield curve has inverted significantly, indicating recession risks and further limiting the effectiveness of both monetary and fiscal policies [13] Politicization of Debt Management - The management of US debt has become highly politicized, with partisan disputes over the debt ceiling undermining fiscal discipline and leading to increased borrowing costs [14][15] - Historical precedents show that political standoffs over the debt ceiling can lead to downgrades in credit ratings, which in turn raise borrowing costs and create economic instability [14][9] - The ongoing ideological battles between parties result in a lack of continuity in fiscal policy, contributing to significant fluctuations in the fiscal deficit relative to GDP [14][16] Conclusion and Outlook - The US faces a fundamental contradiction in its monetary system, where the reliance on the dollar as a global reserve currency is threatened by fiscal and monetary expansion that erodes its credibility [17] - Proposed reforms include establishing automatic mechanisms to replace political negotiations over the debt ceiling and creating bipartisan committees to assess long-term fiscal risks [17]
特别策划丨王勇:美国财政货币政策难调和政治斗争导致美国债风险无从化解
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-07-16 05:46