金丰来：美联储独立性再受考验

Core Viewpoint - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, issued a rare warning to the U.S. government regarding the interference in the Federal Reserve's independence, highlighting concerns over the politicization of monetary policy and its impact on market confidence [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - Maintaining the independence of the central bank is crucial for the stability of the financial system, as any interference could lead to unforeseen consequences [1]. - The ongoing verbal pressure from the White House and rumors of leadership changes have already impacted market confidence, emphasizing that the independence of the Fed is vital for its credibility [1][5]. - The independence of the Fed is a key indicator for global investors assessing the credibility of a country's financial system, and any perception of the Fed being influenced by the executive branch could undermine the safe-haven status of U.S. assets [7]. Group 2: Current Economic Context - The Federal Reserve is at a critical juncture in policy-making, facing high inflation and economic growth pressures, leading to significant divergence in expectations regarding interest rate hikes or cuts [3]. - The current interest rate path is no longer solely determined by economic variables, as public criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell and discussions of a "shadow chair" could signal political interference in policy decisions [5]. - The need for a clear, transparent, and data-driven interest rate path is emphasized, as political maneuvering could exacerbate market volatility [7]. Group 3: Implications for Investors - Investors should closely monitor changes in the Fed's communication and the evolving market expectations, as these will be critical for future trading decisions [7]. - The potential for political interference in monetary policy could directly affect the U.S. dollar's performance, bond pricing, and the allocation of global liquidity [7].