Guosen Securities(SZ:002736) 智通财经网·2025-07-16 06:11Core Viewpoint - The recovery of NVIDIA's H20 chip sales is expected to significantly boost inventory clearance and capital expenditure growth among domestic cloud service providers in China, leading to a positive impact on downstream demand and AI model development [1][3][4]. Group 1: NVIDIA's H20 Chip Recovery - NVIDIA plans to resume sales of the H20 chip to China and has announced a new compliant GPU version specifically for the Chinese market, with the U.S. government assuring the issuance of necessary licenses [2]. - The first quarter report from NVIDIA indicated an inventory write-down and procurement obligation loss of $4.5 billion, with an estimated inventory clearance for H20 expected to reach around $10 billion [3]. - The resumption of H20 procurement is anticipated to lead to a rush among cloud service providers to stock up, significantly driving capital expenditure growth [3][4]. Group 2: Domestic Cloud Service Providers - In the second quarter, the number of AI customers among domestic cloud service providers saw a slight decline, but the penetration rate of AI applications continued to improve, maintaining high growth rates [4]. - The capital expenditure of domestic cloud providers is expected to remain stable in the second quarter, influenced by the temporary slowdown in AI server procurement due to the H20 supply interruption [4]. - With the recovery of H20 supply and the introduction of NVIDIA's B-series special chips, a quarterly upward trend in cloud service demand growth is anticipated [4]. Group 3: AI Model Development - The second quarter witnessed a strong momentum in the development of large AI models, with domestic tech companies accelerating their efforts to catch up with international standards [5]. - Major companies like Alibaba, ByteDance, Tencent, and Baidu have made significant advancements in developing open-source models and tools, enhancing the AI ecosystem and application scenarios [5]. - The recovery of computing power supply is expected to further drive the iteration of AI models [5]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The recovery of H20 supply addresses the GPU shortage in China, reducing the time and cost associated with hardware investment and accelerating cloud adoption among domestic enterprises [6]. - Recommended investment targets include NVIDIA (NVDA.US), Alibaba (09988), Tencent Holdings, and Xiaomi Group (01810), all of which have strong positions in cloud services and related ecosystems [6].