美财长贝森特“利率豪赌”恐酿大错：或颠覆40年发债传统

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury is considering a significant shift in its debt issuance strategy, advocating for an increase in short-term Treasury bonds to reduce future debt servicing costs, which may disrupt over 40 years of market neutrality principles [1][2][3] Group 1: Current Debt Situation - The U.S. faces a severe debt situation, with the Congressional Budget Office predicting an additional $22 trillion in federal deficits over the next decade, and net interest payments as a percentage of GDP expected to rise from 3.2% in 2025 to 4.1% in 2035 [1] - The "Big and Beautiful Budget" is projected to add over $3 trillion to the ten-year deficit, further deteriorating the fiscal outlook [1] Group 2: Proposed Strategy - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggests shifting debt issuance towards short-term bonds, with the average maturity of outstanding debt currently at about 71 months, slightly above the 64-month average since 2000 [1] - The strategy aims to avoid locking in current high rates and potentially save costs when rates decline in the future [1] Group 3: Key Questions and Risks - The success of this strategy hinges on whether current interest rates are indeed at a high point and will inevitably decline, as current levels are closer to historical averages rather than the post-2008 crisis lows [2] - The cost of adjusting the debt issuance policy is uncertain; a gradual approach may differ significantly from a tactical adjustment based on yield fluctuations, potentially raising financing costs across all maturities [2] - Short-term financing increases refinancing risks, as more frequent debt issuance could make servicing costs more sensitive to interest rate fluctuations [2] Group 4: Implications of Failure - If Bessent's gamble fails, it could increase taxpayer burdens and undermine global investor confidence in U.S. Treasuries, which are considered the "safest asset in the world" [3] - The upcoming refinancing plan announcement on July 30 will be crucial, as it may signal a tactical shift in U.S. debt management [2][3]