镍下半年展望：日子好起来了？

Group 1: Market Overview - Nickel prices experienced significant fluctuations in the first half of 2025, influenced by macroeconomic factors and industry dynamics, with a notable decline following the U.S.-China tariff war [1][2] - The overall trajectory of nickel prices has shifted downward, indicating potential challenges for the second half of the year, driven by structural oversupply and slowing demand from the electric vehicle sector [1][2][3] Group 2: Macroeconomic Factors - The macroeconomic environment remains a key driver of nickel price volatility, with expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts potentially improving market sentiment and liquidity [2][3] - However, uncertainties surrounding U.S. policy and escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China pose significant risks to the demand outlook for nickel [3] Group 3: Industry Challenges - The nickel industry faces severe oversupply, primarily due to the rapid expansion of low-cost production capacity in Indonesia, which has led to a significant imbalance between supply and demand [4][5] - The demand side is also weakening, with stainless steel production slowing and the growth rate of nickel sulfate for electric vehicle batteries declining, leading to a dual weakness in demand [5][6] Group 4: Price Dynamics - Nickel prices are expected to be under pressure as the cost support shifts from marginal costs to integrated production costs, indicating a potential further decline in price levels [7][8] - The market is likely to experience a range-bound trading pattern, with nickel prices fluctuating between 105,000 and 130,000 yuan per ton, constrained by oversupply and cost dynamics [8][9] Group 5: Strategic Considerations - Industry participants are advised to focus on survival strategies rather than expecting a market recovery, emphasizing cost control and cash flow management amid ongoing oversupply [9][10] - The competitive landscape has shifted from capacity expansion to a focus on cost management, highlighting the need for companies to adapt to the current market conditions [9]