中美芯片之争的关键机器，“中国正在赢得时间”

Core Viewpoint - The increasing pressure from the West is pushing China to accelerate its efforts in independent innovation, particularly in the field of lithography technology, which remains a significant challenge for achieving 100% domestic production of chip equipment [1][5][10]. Group 1: Lithography Technology Importance - Lithography technology is crucial for the final performance of chips, and its complexity has allowed ASML to dominate the market, creating significant barriers for potential challengers [1][5]. - Currently, China has not achieved self-sufficiency in lithography tools, and there are still gaps in local production capabilities [1][6]. Group 2: China's Strategies and Developments - China is employing a "stockpiling" strategy to accumulate ASML equipment, which provides time to develop its own lithography technology [1][6]. - In 2024, China plans to purchase lithography equipment worth €8.92 billion (approximately ¥744.3 billion), which accounts for 41% of ASML's annual system sales [5][10]. - Chinese semiconductor manufacturers, including SMIC and Yangtze Memory Technologies, have made significant progress in replacing foreign tools with domestic alternatives for various processes [4][10]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The emergence of strong domestic competitors in China poses a threat to non-Chinese suppliers, as these companies are likely to increase their investment in semiconductor equipment R&D [2][10]. - Analysts predict that if China achieves breakthroughs in lithography technology, it will create immense pressure on non-Chinese suppliers [2][6]. Group 4: Global Market Dynamics - ASML is facing challenges due to geopolitical tensions and economic headwinds, with its stock price dropping over 20% in the past year [9]. - The U.S. export restrictions are seen as inadvertently creating a "golden era" for Chinese semiconductor equipment suppliers, as they shift towards domestic equipment [10][11]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The Chinese government is investing significantly in the semiconductor industry, with a focus on strengthening the lithography supply chain, expecting to attract ¥1.38 trillion in private investment [10]. - ASML's CEO has expressed concerns that U.S. policies may ultimately undermine its market position and accelerate China's development of its semiconductor industry [11][13].