美西运费跌破成本线：国际货代的生存绞杀战已打响

Core Insights - The shipping industry is facing a severe price war driven by oversupply and tariff conflicts, with Maersk's West Coast spot rates dropping to $1,700 per container, which is dangerously close to the operational cost range of $1,650 to $1,750 [1] - Global container ship supply has surged by 10.3% year-on-year, while demand has only increased by 2.0%, leading to a significant drop in utilization rates on the West Coast from 85% to 68% [1] - The chaotic tariff environment, particularly the U.S. unilateral tariffs affecting 14 countries, has further complicated logistics, with Southeast Asian manufacturers facing high tax rates and uncertainty regarding "transshipment" goods [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The price war is exacerbated by new market entrants offering rates as low as $1,400 per container, forcing established players to incur losses of at least $300 per container shipped [1] - Freight forwarders are experiencing increased operational costs due to the need for tariff policy interpretation, with some companies reporting a 40% rise in manpower costs just for policy checks [2] - The competition for profit distribution between shipping companies and freight forwarders is intensifying, with freight forwarders now facing direct pricing from shipping companies that undercut their rates [3] Group 2: Industry Restructuring - The decline in freight rates is prompting a shift in the industry from a focus on "scale expansion" to "survival quality," where only those who can withstand losses will survive [4] - Freight forwarders are being forced to either exit the market or transition to pure service agents, relying on minimal operational fees that barely cover their costs [3] - The European shipping line is also facing challenges, with supply growth at 8.7% and demand only at 1.2%, leading to a drop in rates from $2,800-$3,200 per container, down 11% from earlier in the month [3]