川普鲍威尔对决，赢家竟然是大A

Group 1: Inflation Debate - The release of the June CPI data in the U.S. has sparked a fierce debate between two camps: Trump advocating for a 300 basis point rate cut and Fed Chair Powell maintaining a cautious stance [1][2] - The June core CPI rose by 0.2% month-over-month, lower than the expected 0.3% but higher than May's 0.1%, marking the fifth consecutive month of underperformance against expectations [2][13] - Following the CPI announcement, the Dow Jones dropped 400 points, and the S&P 500 fell by 0.4%, indicating investor support for Powell's cautious approach [2] Group 2: Market Expectations - The essence of the market lies in the difference between expectations and reality, where a reversal in expectations can lead to positive market feedback despite poor realities [3] - The concept of "expectation difference" highlights the information asymmetry that leads to cognitive differences among investors [3] Group 3: Institutional Behavior - The presence of around a hundred stocks related to domestic substitution concepts raises questions about why only a few have seen significant price movements, suggesting institutional interest [5] - Data analytics tools can reveal trading behavior patterns, allowing for insights into institutional participation in the market [5][7] Group 4: Data Predictive Power - Active institutional participation in stocks often precedes market reactions, indicating strategic positioning by these entities [10] - A contrasting example shows that despite positive forecasts, lack of institutional interest can lead to poor stock performance [12] Group 5: Structural Changes in Inflation - The CPI report indicates structural changes, with price increases in furniture (0.4%), clothing (0.4%), and footwear (0.7%), reflecting the inflationary effects of Trump's tariff policies [13] - Market expectations for a September rate cut have dropped from 60% to 50%, showing a shift in professional investors' confidence towards Powell's assessment of inflation drivers [13] Group 6: Investment Insights - The market's reaction suggests that professional investors trust Powell's cautious approach, emphasizing the importance of understanding the underlying data rather than surface-level interpretations [14] - Long-term tracking of institutional trading behavior is crucial for accurately gauging market trends [14]