美国6月CPI证实关税传导，商品通胀时隔4个月再抬头，核心PCE可能更“猛”？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the tariff transmission effect has begun to manifest, with June's CPI data revealing structural changes despite appearing weak on the surface [1][2][4] - June's core CPI increased by 0.23% month-on-month, slightly below market expectations, while the year-on-year rate rose from 2.8% to 2.9%, indicating a mild inflationary trend [2][4] - Core commodity prices saw a notable increase of 0.2% in June, marking the first significant rise since February, with household goods and clothing prices experiencing substantial hikes due to tariffs [2][4] Group 2 - The report highlights that household goods prices rose by 0.98%, the largest increase since January 2022, while clothing and entertainment goods also saw price increases [4] - Barclays estimates that the effective tariff rate in the U.S. is between 14-15%, significantly higher than last year's 2.5%, with about 50% of tariff costs expected to be passed on to consumers [4] - The anticipated core PCE is projected to rise by 0.34% month-on-month, driven by a rebound in the stock market and increased investment-related services, reinforcing the Federal Reserve's current policy stance [7]