UBS(US:UBS) 智通财经网·2025-07-16 09:20Group 1 - UBS expresses caution regarding the outlook for U.S. consumers and the economy, anticipating significant pressure on risk appetite in financial markets due to new tariffs and inflationary pressures [1][2][3] - The firm predicts a decline in U.S. GDP growth to approximately 1% in 2025, influenced by delayed fiscal stimulus and a cautious consumer environment [2][3] - UBS highlights rising loan delinquency rates and weakened consumer spending intentions, indicating tightening credit conditions and increased potential credit risks [1][3][17] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment is unfavorable for consumers, with slowing economic growth and a projected unemployment rate of about 4.6% in 2025 [3][4] - UBS forecasts core PCE inflation to remain around 3.4% by the end of 2025, contributing to sustained high interest rates that will burden household debt repayment [4][9] - The impact of increased tariffs is expected to erode consumer purchasing power, with 68% of respondents indicating inflation negatively affects their economic outlook [9][16] Group 3 - UBS recommends a defensive investment strategy, focusing on high-quality, cash-flow stable companies and essential consumer goods, while avoiding high-debt and cyclical sectors [21][22] - The firm identifies a "trade-down" trend among consumers, benefiting large discount retailers like Walmart and Costco, which dominate U.S. retail spending [22] - UBS emphasizes the importance of monitoring credit cycles, as rising delinquency rates in student loans and mortgages signal increasing financial pressure on consumers [17][21]