鲍威尔悬了，黄金超绝变脸！

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The June Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. rose by 2.7% year-on-year, the highest level since February, slightly above market expectations of 2.6% and up from 2.4% in the previous month [3] - Month-on-month, the CPI increased by 0.3%, meeting expectations and higher than the previous value of 0.1% [3] - Core CPI rose by 3.3% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month, remaining below market expectations for the fifth consecutive month [3] Group 2: Trade and Tariffs - Analysts believe that the U.S. government's increase or threat to increase tariffs on products from major trading partners is a primary driver of rising prices [4] - There is an expectation that inflationary pressures may intensify in the coming months if the U.S. government implements tariff increases, potentially worsening the inflation situation in the second half of the year [4] - The market shows a 60% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, despite overall inflation pressures easing [4] Group 3: Federal Reserve Leadership - The selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chair has officially begun, with Kevin Hassett, the White House National Economic Council Director, emerging as a leading candidate [6] - The next Fed Chair will face significant challenges in balancing the Fed's independent monetary policy goals with President Trump's demand for rate cuts [6] - The scrutiny on the new Fed Chair will be intense, focusing on whether political loyalty will compromise the Fed's credibility in combating inflation [6] Group 4: International Trade Agreements - President Trump announced that tariffs will begin on August 1, with a significant agreement reached with Indonesia involving a 19% tariff on exports to the U.S. and commitments to purchase $15 billion in U.S. energy products and $4.5 billion in agricultural products [8] - The agreement with Indonesia allows U.S. farmers and ranchers full access to the Indonesian market, while U.S. exports to Indonesia will enjoy tariff-free treatment [8] Group 5: Geopolitical Tensions - Israel conducted airstrikes in Lebanon, resulting in 12 deaths and 8 injuries, targeting Hezbollah military sites [10] - Ongoing airstrikes in Gaza have led to 70 fatalities, including children, amidst a backdrop of uncertain ceasefire negotiations [11] - Yemen's Houthi forces claimed to have conducted synchronized attacks on two Israeli targets, indicating escalating regional tensions [13]