欧元/美元价格预测：下一个下行目标是1.1460

Core Insights - The Euro/USD continues to weaken, falling below 1.1600 due to strong US CPI data in June, which has provided additional momentum to the dollar [1][2]. Economic Indicators - Economic confidence in Germany and the Eurozone has improved, yet the Euro has declined further, nearing a four-week low, contributing to the Euro/USD's fifth consecutive day of decline [2]. - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes reveal internal divisions among policymakers regarding interest rate cuts, with some advocating for immediate action while others prefer caution until the impact of tariff-driven inflation is clearer [4]. Trade Tensions - The White House has announced a pause on new tariff decisions until August 1, but escalating trade tensions are evident, including threats of 30% tariffs on EU goods and 25% tariffs on imports from Japan and South Korea, which have heightened concerns over broader conflicts and increased the dollar's value [3]. Central Bank Policies - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance is supported by accelerating inflation pressures, as indicated by the June CPI data, while the European Central Bank has stated it will only consider further easing if there is clear evidence of a slowdown in external demand [4]. Market Dynamics - Speculators are focusing on key levels for the Euro/USD, needing to break above 1.1830 to target long-term highs, while a drop below 1.1592 could lead to testing lower support levels [5]. - Technical indicators have shifted to a bearish mode, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) falling below 48, indicating potential further declines, and the Average Directional Index (ADX) around 27 suggesting a strong trend [6]. Short-term Outlook - The prospect of Fed rate cuts alongside the ECB's pause may provide new momentum for the Euro, potentially pushing the Euro/USD higher, although any sustained rebound is hindered by ongoing trade tensions and the unpredictability of US tariff policies [9].