Workflow
凯德北京投资基金管理有限公司:柯林斯认为美国企业和消费者韧性或缓冲关税通胀压力
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-07-16 09:39

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for the Federal Reserve to adopt a "patient" approach in adjusting the benchmark interest rate amid economic uncertainties [1][5] - Collins expresses confidence in the resilience of the current U.S. economy, suggesting that the overall impact of tariffs may not be as severe as previously feared, due to the flexibility of businesses in adjusting profit margins and resilient consumer spending [3][8] - The analysis of the tariff transmission mechanism indicates that while rising import prices may push inflation up, the adverse effects on economic growth and employment may be limited due to the buffering capabilities of businesses and consumers [3][5] Group 2 - The current policy deadlock at the Federal Reserve is highlighted, with a consensus that the likelihood of a rate cut in July is low, as decision-makers await data to assess the actual impact of trade policies on the economy [5][8] - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are noted, with differing opinions on the implications of new tariff policies for inflation and the potential for rate cuts [5] - Collins' stance on "active patience" provides the Federal Reserve with a valuable observation window, especially as the tariff suspension period is extended, allowing for a more thorough evaluation of the economic impact [8]