Gold Market - Gold prices continued to decline slightly, indicating potential signs of deterioration in both short-term and mid-term trends, possibly marking the beginning of a mid-term adjustment [1] - The latest inflation data has reduced the probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, leading to a stronger dollar and weaker gold prices [1] - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June rose 0.3% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, both in line with market expectations, with the month-on-month increase being the largest since February [1] - Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year, surpassing the previous value of 2.8% [1] - The probability of a rate cut in July has dropped to below 5%, with expectations that the Federal Reserve may only cut rates once this year [1] - The relationship between the Federal Reserve and President Trump is expected to worsen, increasing market uncertainty, which may still favor gold in the long term [1] - Technically, gold is showing a downward trend with a focus on the resistance level around $3346 [1] Oil Market - Oil prices continued to decline slightly, with a high probability of a downward C-wave pattern [2] - The fundamental pressure on oil prices has lessened, but the oversupply situation remains the biggest obstacle to price increases, with a potential drop to the $55 level [2] - OPEC's latest monthly report aims to instill confidence in the market, predicting better-than-expected global economic growth in the second half of the year and high refinery crude processing rates due to increased summer travel [2] - OPEC maintains its forecasts for global oil demand growth in 2025 and 2026 at 1.29 million barrels per day and 1.28 million barrels per day, respectively, with a significant increase of 2.1 million barrels per day in global refinery crude processing in June compared to May [2] - However, economic uncertainties may suppress oil consumption demand, and OPEC's continued production increase to regain market share contradicts efforts to maintain oil prices [2] - Technically, oil prices are showing a high probability of a downward trend, with a focus on the resistance level around $67 [2] Copper Market - Copper prices have shown a series of small declines and small increases, likely indicating an adjustment to previous gains [3] - The short-term outlook suggests a potential further decline, but the overall bullish logic remains intact [3] - Attention should be paid to the support level around $5.35 [3] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has shown a series of small declines and small increases, indicating a potential completion of its current structure [5] - A downward continuation pattern has formed in the 4-hour cycle, with a focus on the resistance level around 39,940 [5]
百利好晚盘分析：通胀再创新高 降息概率降低
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-07-16 09:51