Vatee外汇：通胀数据靴子落地后，黄金为何仍承压？

Group 1 - The gold market continued its weak trend, with spot gold falling to around $3327 per ounce, down 0.5% from the previous trading day, and futures gold recording a 0.7% decline [1] - The June CPI data in the U.S. met market expectations, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year level of 2.7%, indicating that inflation is not "out of control" [3] - Concerns about rising inflation are growing, as the June CPI represents the strongest monthly growth in the past six months, despite not deviating from market expectations [3] Group 2 - President Trump emphasized the need for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, suggesting that consumer prices are low and should warrant a rate cut, which creates a policy expectation in the market [3] - The market is increasingly anticipating potential new tariffs from Trump, with proposed tariffs of up to 30% on goods from the EU and Mexico, which could lead to input inflation and increased price pressure [3] - The upcoming PPI data is crucial, as a strong rebound could influence whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates in September, potentially putting further pressure on gold prices [3][4] Group 3 - With U.S. Treasury yields stabilizing and some safe-haven funds returning to fixed-income assets, along with a strong dollar index, gold is facing additional headwinds [4] - Silver, platinum, and palladium also reflect a market waiting for clearer macro signals, with silver down 0.9% and platinum and palladium showing slight increases, indicating short-term technical corrections rather than a trend reversal [4] - Gold is currently in a delicate phase of mixed factors and increasing expectation divergence, lacking strong support from inflation protection buying and not being favored due to heightened risk aversion [4]