“促消费”政策和新兴消费叠加利好 沪零售物业市场租赁需求边际改善

Core Insights - The primary goal of lease restructuring is to reduce costs, with rental prices in Shanghai showing a downward trend due to adjustments in the international economic environment and increased supply [1][3] - Major enterprises with long-term leases are reassessing current rental levels, leading to negotiations for alternative solutions such as extending lease terms in exchange for lower prices [1][4] Retail Property Market - The retail property market in Shanghai is experiencing marginal improvements in leasing demand, driven by "promoting consumption" policies and emerging consumer trends [2] - In Q2 2025, the average rent in core retail areas decreased by 1.1% to 43.1 yuan/sqm/day, while non-core areas saw a 1.8% decline to 15.0 yuan/sqm/day [7] - The overall rental market remains competitive, with landlords offering attractive rental terms and incentives to attract brands [7] Office Market - The office market is primarily driven by cost-sensitive tenants seeking favorable lease terms, with net absorption recorded at approximately 57,300 sqm in Q2 2025 [3][4] - The vacancy rate in the central business district (CBD) rose to 16.9%, while the overall market vacancy rate increased to 24.6% due to significant supply in non-CBD areas [4] - Rental prices for Grade A office buildings continued to decline, with CBD rents down 2.4% to 6.9 yuan/sqm/day and non-CBD rents down 2.7% to 4.5 yuan/sqm/day [4] Industrial Park Demand - Demand in industrial parks remains cautious, with net absorption of 23,600 sqm in Q2 2025, primarily driven by artificial intelligence and integrated circuits [5] - The overall vacancy rate in industrial parks increased to 25.1%, with market rents declining by 5.0% to 3.6 yuan/sqm/day [5] Investment Market - In Q2 2025, the Shanghai commercial real estate market recorded 23 transactions totaling 8.2 billion yuan, with an average transaction size of 360 million yuan [8][9] - Investment demand remains dominant, accounting for 66% of the market, with core area assets contributing significantly to transaction volumes and values [9] - The retail property sector was the most active, representing 35% of transaction counts, particularly in street-level commercial assets [9]