Group 1 - The recent consumer price index (CPI) data for June shows a complex picture influenced by tariffs, with core CPI rising only 0.2% month-over-month, slightly below market expectations [1] - Core goods prices have seen a significant increase for the first time since February, particularly in household items and clothing, indicating the impact of tariffs on consumer prices [2] - Financial institutions predict that the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index will outperform core CPI, with expected month-over-month growth between 0.29% and 0.34%, which may reduce the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][5] Group 2 - Core CPI year-over-year growth increased from 2.8% to 2.9%, while core goods prices rose by 0.2%, marking the strongest performance since February 2023 [1] - The trade-weighted effective tariff rate in the U.S. has risen to 14%-15%, significantly higher than the previous year's 2.5%, with an estimated 50% of tariff costs expected to be passed on to consumers [2] - The anticipated core PCE growth of 0.34% in June is driven by stock market rebounds and rising prices in investment-related services, reinforcing the Federal Reserve's current monetary policy stance [5]
美国6月CPI:关税传导效应显现,商品通胀抬头,核心PCE将何去何从?
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-07-16 11:06