ASML Holding(US:ASML) 智通财经网·2025-07-16 11:17Core Viewpoint - ASML's CEO Christophe Fouquet has withdrawn the company's growth forecast for next year due to escalating uncertainties from macroeconomic and geopolitical developments, leading to a significant drop in the company's stock price [1] Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Reaction - ASML's stock price fell by 8.5% to €646.30, marking the largest single-day decline since April 7, with a total drop of 34% over the past year [1] - The decline in ASML's stock also triggered a collective drop in the semiconductor equipment sector, with peers like Applied Materials and Lam Research seeing declines of over 2% [1] Group 2: Financial Projections - ASML expects third-quarter net sales to be between €7.4 billion and €7.9 billion (approximately $8.6 billion), which is below analysts' average estimate of €8.2 billion [2] - The company maintains its full-year revenue growth forecast of 15% [2] Group 3: Customer Behavior and Market Dynamics - Customers are delaying equipment purchases due to uncertainties surrounding tariffs and export control policies, impacting major clients like TSMC and Intel [5] - Intel's new CEO is pushing for a restructuring plan involving over 20% layoffs, while Samsung reported its first profit decline since 2023, primarily due to shrinking AI market share [5] Group 4: Future Growth Potential - Despite the lowered growth expectations, Fouquet emphasized that the fundamentals for AI customers remain strong, with significant investments flowing into AI data center construction [6] - ASML received new orders worth €5.5 billion in the second quarter, exceeding market expectations, although the company will stop disclosing quarterly order data starting next year [6] Group 5: Trade Relations and Policy Impact - Signs of easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China could benefit ASML, as NVIDIA and AMD have been allowed to resume sales of certain AI chips to China, which is ASML's second-largest market [8] - The Dutch government continues to prohibit the export of EUV equipment to China due to U.S. pressure, and any relaxation of U.S. export restrictions on AI processors could boost chip demand [8] - CFO Dassen outlined four potential pathways through which tariff policies could impact business, emphasizing the need for a defensive strategy to minimize ASML's exposure [8][9]