Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-07-16 11:26Core Viewpoint - Cainiao, as a logistics entity, is increasingly constrained by its role in supporting Alibaba's e-commerce strategy, leading to persistent losses and diminishing growth potential [2][24]. Group 1: Company Development and Strategy - Cainiao was established to address logistics challenges faced by Alibaba's e-commerce, particularly during peak shopping events like "Double Eleven" [5][7]. - Following Alibaba's acquisition of remaining shares in Cainiao, the company is expected to align closely with Alibaba's strategic needs, focusing on enhancing global logistics capabilities [4][9]. - The company has shifted from a light-asset model to a more integrated logistics technology platform, reflecting Alibaba's dominance in the e-commerce sector [7][11]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Cainiao's revenue has shown significant growth, with figures of 52.73 billion RMB in 2021, 66.87 billion RMB in 2022, and 77.80 billion RMB in 2023, representing a compound annual growth rate of 21.4% [8][22]. - Despite revenue growth, Cainiao has faced substantial losses, totaling 7.10 billion RMB from 2021 to 2023, with net losses of 2.02 billion RMB in 2021, 2.29 billion RMB in 2022, and 2.80 billion RMB in 2023 [22][24]. - The company's gross margin has remained relatively stable at around 10.5% to 10.7%, but it has struggled with high operational costs, leading to negative profit margins [21][22]. Group 3: Market Position and Challenges - The cross-border e-commerce market in China has seen significant growth, with a 10.8% increase in trade volume in 2024, yet Cainiao faces intense competition from platforms like Pinduoduo's Temu [18][20]. - As Alibaba refocuses on its core e-commerce business, Cainiao's role has shifted to that of a supporting player, limiting its ability to independently drive growth [10][24]. - The recent decision to withdraw its IPO application reflects the need for Cainiao to prioritize alignment with Alibaba's strategic goals over independent expansion [10][11].