6月CPI彻底“摊牌” 美联储的通胀担忧成为现实！

Core Viewpoint - The increase in prices of various goods, including coffee, audio equipment, and household items, has led to a rise in inflation in June, indicating that the costs of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration are being passed on to consumers [1][2]. Inflation Data - The overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. rose by 0.3% month-on-month in June, translating to an annualized rate of approximately 3.5%, compared to a mere 0.1% increase in May [1]. - The core inflation, excluding food and energy, was reported to be lower than expected, suggesting that inflation is being stabilized under Trump's administration [3]. Tariff Impact - Economists predict that the delayed effects of tariffs will accelerate inflation over the summer, with significant price increases observed in imported goods such as audio equipment, which saw a monthly increase of 1.1% and a year-on-year increase of 11.1%, marking the highest increase on record for this category [1][5]. - The impact of tariffs is expected to continue influencing inflation, with estimates suggesting that new tariffs could increase the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price level by approximately 0.4 percentage points if fully transmitted [4]. Federal Reserve Response - The Federal Reserve is cautious about interest rate cuts, with market expectations for a rate cut in September becoming uncertain due to rising inflation concerns [2][3]. - The Boston Fed President warned that rising import taxes will likely continue to push inflation higher while suppressing growth and employment [2]. Consumer Behavior - Despite rising prices, strong balance sheets for businesses and households may help absorb the shock of tariffs, potentially limiting negative impacts on the labor market and economic growth [2]. - The price increases in categories such as household goods and entertainment indicate that the effects of tariffs are gradually permeating through the economy [3][5].