关税“通胀效应”照进现实，30年期美债收益率攻破5%

Group 1: Inflation Data and Economic Impact - The latest inflation data shows that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in June, marking the largest increase since February, with core CPI increasing by 2.9% [1][2] - The increase in inflation is primarily attributed to the impact of tariffs imposed by the US government on imports, which has started to affect consumer prices [2][5] - Despite the overall inflation data meeting expectations, there are signs of consumer fatigue, as prices for used cars and airline tickets have been declining [2][3] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decisions - Following the inflation report, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July increased to 97%, while the likelihood of a rate cut in September dropped to around 50% [1][4] - Analysts suggest that the Fed is likely to adopt a wait-and-see approach to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation before making any rate changes [4][5] - The potential for a rate cut in December is also being discussed, with some economists predicting that the Fed may not lower rates until then due to uncertainties surrounding tariffs [6] Group 3: Bond Market Reactions - The rise in inflation expectations has led to a sell-off in US Treasury bonds, with the 30-year bond yield surpassing 5% and the 10-year yield approaching 4.5% [7] - Investors are increasingly betting against long-term bonds, anticipating further increases in yields due to inflationary pressures [7][8] - Concerns about high government debt and fiscal spending are growing, with projections indicating that the US deficit could increase significantly in the coming years [7][8] Group 4: Future Economic Outlook - Analysts warn that the inflationary pressures may intensify in the coming months if the US government implements additional tariffs, potentially leading to a more severe inflation scenario [3][6] - The overall economic conditions are seen as stable, allowing the Fed time to evaluate incoming data before making significant policy changes [5][8] - The market is facing a rare scenario of simultaneous sell-offs in equities, bonds, and the dollar, indicating potential structural changes in the market landscape [8]