关税效应仍未显现？美国6月PPI同比创近一年新低 环比持平 服务通缩、商品温和上涨

Core Viewpoint - The June PPI in the U.S. showed no month-on-month growth, with service prices unexpectedly declining and moderate increases in goods prices, indicating that the current "inflation pipeline" is not heating up. However, revisions to previous data and a rebound in intermediate demand goods may signal potential risks in the future [1][10]. Group 1: PPI Data Overview - The June PPI year-on-year increased by 2.3%, significantly lower than the expected 2.5%, marking the lowest year-on-year growth since September 2024. The previous value was revised from 2.6% to 2.7% [1]. - The core PPI year-on-year growth was 2.6%, the lowest since March 2024, also below the expected 2.7%, with the previous value revised from 3% to 3.2% [2]. Group 2: Price Movements in Goods and Services - Despite the overall zero growth in PPI, there was a moderate rebound in goods prices, with final demand goods prices rising by 0.3%, the largest increase since February [3]. - Excluding food and energy, goods prices also rose by 0.3%, indicating a broad but moderate inflationary trend [4]. - Energy prices increased by 0.6% month-on-month, while food prices rose by 0.2%. However, energy prices remain in a "deflationary" state year-on-year, providing a buffer for overall PPI growth [5]. Group 3: Service Prices and Inflation Dynamics - Service prices declined by 0.1% month-on-month, down from a previous increase of 0.4%, which was a major driver of the weaker PPI [7]. - The "deflationary" effect in services has successfully offset the price pressures from the goods sector, as companies have not fully passed on tariff pressures, leading to moderate changes in profit margins [8][10]. - The transmission of "tariff inflation" has not fully materialized in June, appearing more like a delayed process [9]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Economic Implications - The path of inflation remains uncertain, with "lagged transmission" being a core concern for the market. Economists believe the coming months will be critical for observing whether "tariff inflation" will be fully released [10]. - The upcoming PCE data is expected to reflect a "moderate inflation" trend, providing the Federal Reserve with room to maintain its interest rate policy in the short term [12].