鲍威尔“下课”进入倒计时？“被炒”押注直线飙升，继任者遴选工作开启，如何冲击美元、美债和美股

Group 1 - The inflation caused by tariffs is becoming evident, leading to a decrease in market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, while the possibility of Chairman Powell being dismissed is increasing [1][2][4] - On July 15, U.S. Treasury Secretary Besant announced that the selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chairman has officially begun, with many qualified candidates both inside and outside the Federal Reserve [4][8] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June rose by 2.7% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations of 2.6%, indicating that tariff-induced inflation is starting to show [2][11] Group 2 - If Powell is dismissed, it could lead to significant market turmoil, potentially worse than the Nixon-era interventions in the 1970s, with both the dollar and U.S. bond markets facing severe declines [2][10] - Predictions indicate that if Powell is removed, the dollar could weaken significantly, with estimates suggesting a potential drop of 3% to 4% in the trade-weighted dollar index and a rise of 30 to 40 basis points in 10-year Treasury yields [10][11] - Historical examples, such as the dismissal of Turkey's central bank governor, illustrate the potential for severe currency depreciation and market instability following political interference in central banking [12]