美国通胀数据“分裂” 降息仍非定局

Core Insights - The June inflation data in the U.S. shows a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, slightly above market expectations of 2.6%, primarily driven by rising energy prices [3][4] - Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year, indicating a continued trend of lower-than-expected inflation [3][5] - The impact of tariffs is becoming more pronounced, with economists warning that price increases related to tariffs may not be immediate but could lead to greater consumer cost pressures over time [5][6] Inflation Data - The consumer price index (CPI) for June increased by 2.7% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, marking the largest year-on-year increase since February [3] - Energy prices rose by 0.9% month-on-month, reversing a previous decline, with gasoline and fuel prices also increasing [3][4] - Core CPI's month-on-month increase of 0.2% and year-on-year increase of 2.9% reflects a slowdown in rent inflation and used car prices [3][5] Market Reactions - Following the CPI report, both the stock and bond markets faced pressure, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping over 400 points and the 30-year Treasury yield surpassing 5% [4][7] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have diminished, with the probability of maintaining rates in July rising to 97% [7][8] Tariff Impacts - Recent trade policies have led to increased tariffs on a wide range of goods, causing uncertainty in pricing for businesses and consumers [5][6] - The potential for rising prices on imported goods due to tariffs is expected to manifest in the coming months as companies deplete existing inventories [5][6] Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve is currently assessing the impact of tariffs on inflation and economic conditions, with a divided outlook among policymakers regarding the timing of potential rate cuts [7][8] - The influence of tariffs on inflation is expected to be a gradual process, with significant effects possibly taking months to fully materialize [5][6][9]