三大投行罕见一致：黄金将突破4000美元？

Core Viewpoint - Major Wall Street firms, including Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and UBS, have reached a rare consensus to bullishly forecast gold prices, raising their Q4 target to $3,800 per ounce, with predictions of prices potentially exceeding $4,000 by 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The upcoming tariff policy set to be implemented in August, a weakening dollar, and potential economic stimulus measures from China are providing multiple supports for precious metals [1] - A significant increase in central bank gold purchases, with May's figure reaching 31 tons, far exceeding the average of 17 tons per month prior to 2022, indicates a fundamental shift in market structure [1] Group 2: Investment Perspective - The notion of "high" and "low" price points is misleading; past price perceptions can change over time, as seen with gold prices in 2019 [3] - The focus should be on the real movements of institutional funds rather than short-term price fluctuations, as these movements are key indicators of future trends [5][7] Group 3: Data Insights - The surge in central bank gold purchases, a reduction in speculative positions, and an increase in long-term investors' share all point to a qualitative change in the gold market's participant structure [8] - Observing and understanding market structure changes is crucial, as these often signal trend shifts [8]