Why Nvidia's China Comeback Could Propel Its Stock To New Heights

Group 1 - Needham analyst N. Quinn Bolton maintained a Buy rating on Nvidia NVDA and raised the price forecast from $160 to $200 [1] - Nvidia is set to resume shipments of its H20 GPUs to China after receiving U.S. government approval for export licenses, which had previously blocked $2.5 billion in shipments during fiscal Q1 2026 and another $8 billion in fiscal Q2 2026 [2] - Nvidia generated $4.6 billion in H20 revenue before the license requirement and recorded a $4.5 billion charge for H20 inventory and purchase obligations in the first quarter [3] Group 2 - Bolton projects $3 billion in H20 shipments per quarter moving forward and estimates that previously written-down H20 inventory could yield nearly 100% gross margin when sold [4] - Additional upside is anticipated from Nvidia's upcoming launch of Blackwell GPU variants for the Chinese market, with over $1 billion in orders already placed [5] - Bolton increased fiscal Q3 and Q4 2026 revenue estimates by $4 billion each, with fiscal 2027 revenue projected at $265 billion and EPS at $6.20, while fiscal 2026 revenue is now estimated at $202.6 billion and EPS at $4.42 [6] Group 3 - Nvidia is well-positioned to regain lost sales and expand in China despite export restrictions, due to rapid product adaptation and sustained demand from Chinese tech firms [6] - NVDA stock is trading lower by 0.40% to $170.02 as of the latest check [7]