美股怎么了？ 三大“灰犀牛”正在逼近

Group 1: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - On July 7, Trump announced a new round of tariff measures, leading to a muted reaction in financial markets, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices down by only 0.79% and 0.92% respectively [1] - The U.S. stock market rebounded in the first half of the year due to factors such as TACO trading, fiscal expansion, resilient job market, and stock buybacks, despite facing four instances of simultaneous declines in stocks, bonds, and currencies [1] - Historical data suggests that U.S. monetary tightening or economic stagflation poses the greatest threat to the stock market, although the potential for the Federal Reserve to restart rate cuts may provide support [1] Group 2: Liquidity and Debt Issuance - The U.S. Treasury's resumption of debt issuance in Q3 is expected to create a "drain" effect on dollar liquidity, potentially forcing the Federal Reserve to release liquidity by slowing down quantitative tightening or cutting rates [2] - The net debt issuance by the U.S. Treasury is projected to be around $1 trillion in Q3, partly to refinance maturing debt and meet other financing needs [2] Group 3: Inflation and Tariff Impact - Recent tariff threats from the Trump administration could raise the effective tariff rate from 13.4% to 14.9%, with a potential increase to 18%-20% in a "no deal" scenario, raising concerns about stagflation risks in the U.S. economy [5][6] - There are indications that inflationary pressures from tariffs are beginning to manifest, with a survey showing the highest percentage of small businesses planning to raise prices since March 2024 [6] Group 4: Corporate Earnings and Market Volatility - The second quarter earnings season for U.S. stocks has begun, with expectations of a significant slowdown in profit growth, largely influenced by tariff uncertainties [9] - According to FactSet, S&P 500 companies are expected to see only a 5% profit growth in Q2, marking the slowest growth since Q4 2023, with six out of eleven sectors projected to grow year-over-year [9] - The technology sector, particularly large tech companies, is expected to drive earnings growth, but any decline in tech stock performance could lead to increased pressure on the broader market [9][10]