热轧卷板底部或已现，但下半年仍有二次探底风险

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the recent rebound in steel prices, particularly hot-rolled coil prices, is driven by improved macroeconomic expectations, better-than-expected supply-demand dynamics, and strong performance in raw material prices [1][2][8] - As of July 11, the price of hot-rolled coil main contract reached 3273 yuan/ton, an increase of 221 yuan/ton or 7.24% from the low point in early June [1] - The rebound in steel prices is supported by a positive outlook on macroeconomic conditions, including easing trade tensions between China and the U.S. and expectations for policy support in urban renewal [2][3] Group 2 - The supply-demand dynamics for hot-rolled coils have improved, with significant growth in the automotive and machinery sectors, leading to a positive consumption trend for hot-rolled coils [2] - The prices of coking coal and iron ore have remained strong, providing cost support for steel prices [2] - The manufacturing and export sectors, which are key consumers of hot-rolled coils, may face marginal weakening risks in the second half of the year, potentially impacting demand [4][6] Group 3 - The article highlights that the macroeconomic outlook is expected to continue improving, with potential for synchronized monetary easing between China and the U.S. [3][8] - The manufacturing sector's investment resilience is supported by policies promoting equipment upgrades, although the effectiveness of these policies may diminish in the second half of the year [5][6] - The price gap between cold-rolled and hot-rolled coils has narrowed, indicating weakening downstream demand [6] Group 4 - The current rebound in steel prices is characterized by strong speculative expectations, with the hot-rolled coil main contract price aligning closely with spot prices, creating arbitrage opportunities for traders [7] - There is a risk of a second price dip in late August to September due to potential policy impacts and weaker-than-expected demand recovery [8]