Supply Outlook - Natural rubber production is expected to increase in the second half of the year, with significant growth in exports from Africa to China, leading to a sufficient supply in the domestic market [2][35] - The global production of natural rubber is projected to grow by 0.5% to 14.892 million tons by 2025, while consumption is expected to rise by 1.3% to 15.565 million tons [8] - Thailand's natural rubber production from January to May was 1.432 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, with exports to China rising by 39.69% [11] - Vietnam's natural rubber production decreased by 2.3% to 0.281 million tons from January to May, facing challenges in growth potential [14] - African natural rubber production reached 1.76 million tons in 2022, with Côte d'Ivoire being a major contributor, and exports to China are expected to increase due to zero-tariff policies [19] Demand Uncertainty - The macroeconomic environment and rising global trade tensions have created significant uncertainty in international demand for natural rubber in the second half of the year [26] - Domestic demand is supported by policies such as "old-for-new" tire replacement and the promotion of new energy vehicles, which are expected to boost consumption [34] - Despite high tire production and export levels, inventory pressures remain significant, with tire manufacturers facing high stock levels [31] - The U.S. tariff policies and the EU's anti-dumping investigations may impact global tire trade and demand, leading to further uncertainty [30] Overall Market Outlook - With an expected increase in supply and strong uncertainties in terminal demand, natural rubber prices are anticipated to remain in a weak and volatile state in the second half of the year [36]
天然橡胶价格重心将下移
Qi Huo Ri Bao·2025-07-17 00:54