KVB App:经济活动微升但前景偏悲，通胀或在夏末加速上涨

Core Viewpoint - The impact of the Trump administration's economic policies is becoming increasingly evident, with significant challenges for businesses due to the loss of immigrant labor and fluctuating trade policies [1][4]. Economic Activity - Recent data from the Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates a slight recovery in U.S. economic activity, but the overall outlook remains "neutral to pessimistic" [3]. - All regions reported price increases, with businesses experiencing varying degrees of cost pressure related to tariffs [3][5]. Cost Pressures - Businesses are facing high input cost pressures due to increased tariffs, leading to either profit compression or potential price hikes for consumers [5][6]. - Many companies are adopting different strategies in response to these pressures, with some raising prices preemptively while others choose to wait for clearer trade policies [5]. Consumer Impact - Rising costs are expected to lead to faster increases in consumer prices by late summer, potentially affecting purchasing power and living costs [6]. - If consumer prices rise too quickly without corresponding income growth, it could suppress market demand, negatively impacting business sales and profits [6]. Manufacturing Sector - A few companies mentioned potential benefits from manufacturing returning to the U.S., but this is seen as a rare occurrence and not a guaranteed trend [6]. - The uncertainty in trade policies is hindering businesses from making long-term plans, which could stifle economic vitality [6]. Business Sentiment - Many businesses express concerns about future demand, with some indicating a "business volume cliff" that suggests a significant decline in future activity [4][6]. - The prevailing cautious attitude among businesses, coupled with pessimistic future expectations, may lead to reduced investment and expansion plans, potentially hindering economic growth [5][6].