最近M1改善了，关注钢铁ETF（515210），煤炭ETF（515220）修复价值

Group 1: Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index has recently maintained above 3500 points, but the significance of this level is primarily psychological, and a breakthrough does not necessarily indicate a trend formation. Future focus should be on macroeconomic recovery [1] - The A-share market is expected to experience a recovery in return on equity (ROE) driven by three main factors: the reduction of internal competition, strengthening of overseas manufacturing boosting exports, and the cessation of debt contraction [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - In Q2, actual GDP growth was 5.2% year-on-year, while nominal growth was 3.9%, remaining stable compared to Q2 of the previous year. Industrial output, exports, and retail sales showed mixed results, with industrial output increasing by 6.4% year-on-year [2] - The decline in retail sales is attributed to significant drops in sectors such as dining, tobacco, beverages, and cosmetics, as well as disruptions from national subsidy promotion policies [2] Group 3: Industry Insights - The cement industry is experiencing its lowest operating rates since 2019, with production continuing to decline since 2022. However, price indices have started to rebound since mid-2024 [4][5] - Capital expenditure growth has been negative since 2023, but ROE is expected to stabilize and recover by Q2 2024, indicating a potential bottoming out of capital returns across various industries [4] Group 4: Liquidity and Credit Expansion - M1 money supply has seen significant growth due to strong financing in June, which has increased the amount of demand deposits for enterprises. The easing of debt repayment pressures is also contributing to this liquidity expansion [9] - Social financing increased by 4.2 trillion yuan in June, surpassing expectations, indicating a credit expansion that supports economic recovery [9] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Traditional industries such as coal, oil, steel, transportation, utilities, real estate, and non-bank financials still have a significant proportion of stocks with low price-to-book (PB) ratios, suggesting better value compared to TMT and high-end manufacturing sectors [12][13] - Investors are advised to focus on ETFs related to construction materials, steel, coal, and oil, as these sectors may offer higher returns based on current market conditions [13]