特朗普再怼鲍威尔施压降息,美联储主席坚守独立性激化政治博弈

Group 1: Conflict Overview - The core conflict revolves around monetary policy disagreements and escalating personal attacks between Trump and Fed Chairman Powell [1][2] - Trump demands a reduction in interest rates from the current 4.25%-4.5% to 1% or lower, claiming that each 1% cut could save the U.S. $360 billion in annual interest payments [1] - Personal attacks include derogatory remarks towards Powell, labeling him as "stupid" and "Mr. Too Late," while also threatening his resignation over budget overruns [1][4] Group 2: Powell's Response - Powell emphasizes the independence of monetary policy, stating it should be based on economic data rather than political influence [2] - He cites the Federal Reserve Act, asserting that the President cannot dismiss the Fed Chairman due to policy disagreements, with his term lasting until May 2026 [2][4] Group 3: Legal and Institutional Constraints - The legal framework restricts the dismissal of the Fed Chairman to cases of "misconduct or crime," with no historical precedent for successful removal [4] - A Supreme Court ruling further reinforces that the President lacks the authority to arbitrarily dismiss heads of independent agencies [4][6] Group 4: Economic Implications - The U.S. national debt has reached $36 trillion, and a 1% interest rate reduction could save $360 billion in interest, significantly exceeding tariff revenues [6] - Trump attributes inflation to Powell's refusal to lower rates, while the Fed counters that Trump's tariffs have contributed to rising prices [7] Group 5: Market Reactions - The dollar index fell nearly 11% within the first six months of Trump's presidency, marking a three-year low [8] - Gold prices surged, with a single-day increase of 13%, the highest since 1968, driven by political uncertainty [9] - Goldman Sachs warns that if the Fed's independence is compromised, gold prices could soar to $4,500 per ounce [10] Group 6: Ongoing Developments - As of July 17, Trump has paused his actions, stating it is "unlikely" he will fire Powell but insists on a change within eight months [11] - Powell has requested an investigation into the renovation budget overruns and maintains a data-driven approach, hinting at potential rate cuts in September [12][13] - The conflict highlights a struggle between short-term political gains and long-term economic stability, with both parties facing significant challenges [13]