Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-07-17 02:10Core Insights - Nvidia's plan to resume supply of H20 chips to China is seen as a market focus, but Morgan Stanley's analysis suggests it is not a game changer for the AI sector [1] - Alibaba's "shovel seller" model is expected to generate quicker financial returns for shareholders compared to Tencent's strategy, which may face short-term challenges [1][6] - Capital expenditure (Capex) is a key indicator of cloud vendors' commitment to AI investments, with predictions of a slowdown in growth in 2025 after a peak in 2024 [4][6] Company Strategies - Alibaba's strategy focuses on external sales of computing power, which is expected to yield higher returns on AI investments compared to Tencent's internal application development approach [1][6] - Tencent's AI ecosystem strategy is seen as beneficial in the long term, but the current free provision of AI features is negatively impacting short-term profitability due to high operational costs [3][6] Financial Projections - Morgan Stanley predicts that the overall capital expenditure growth in the industry will slow down in 2025, while Goldman Sachs expects a recovery in capital spending for Alibaba and Tencent in the second half of 2025 [4][5] - Alibaba's capital expenditure is projected to reach 109 billion RMB in the fiscal year ending March 2026, a 25% increase year-on-year, while Tencent's is expected to be 94 billion RMB, a 22% increase [6] Market Demand - The demand for AI computing power is characterized as "moderate growth" rather than "exponential," particularly among external public cloud customers [5][6] - The recovery of chip supply is not anticipated to lead to a significant increase in cloud vendors' revenues, as many leading companies are using their own GPUs rather than renting from public clouds [5][6]