Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the company Tongcheng Travel (00780) has effectively controlled costs, leading to a 2% increase in the profit forecast for 2025 to 3.3 billion yuan, while maintaining the 2026 profit forecast at 3.9 billion yuan [1] - The company maintains an outperform rating and a target price of 23 HKD, which corresponds to a 15x/12x Non-IFRS P/E for 2025 and 2026, indicating an upside potential of 9% [1] - For Q2 2025, the company expects a 10% year-on-year increase in group revenue to 4.66 billion yuan, with core OTA revenue projected to grow by 13% to 3.99 billion yuan, and Non-IFRS net profit expected to be 750 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The company maintains its judgment of a 13% year-on-year increase in core OTA for Q2, with better-than-expected performance in accommodation and other businesses [2] - In the hotel segment, the company anticipates a high single-digit increase in room nights for Q2 2025, with hotel revenue expected to grow by 14% year-on-year, and an overall hotel revenue growth of 17% for the year [2] - In the transportation segment, the company expects a 9% year-on-year increase in transportation revenue for Q2 2025, with an overall growth of 10% for the year [2] Group 3 - The company is expected to achieve breakeven in international business for the year, benefiting from cost control and efficiency improvements in core OTA operations [3] - The company has raised its full-year profit guidance to 3.3-3.4 billion yuan, up from the previous guidance of 3.2-3.4 billion yuan, indicating further optimization in profit margins [3]
中金：维持同程旅行(00780)目标价23港元 评级“跑赢行业”