证券研究报告 | 2025年04月16日 同程旅行（00780.HK） 下沉用户旅游景气风向标，利润率进入上行周期 $\overline{\rm V_{2}\overline{\rm V_{2}}\overline{\rm V_{3}}\overline{\rm V_{3}}}$ |  | 公司研究·公司快评 |  | 社会服务·旅游及景区 |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 曾光 | 0755-82150809 | zengguang@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980511040003 | | 证券分析师： | 张鲁 | 010-88005377 | zhanglu5@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980521120002 | | 证券分析师： | 杨玉莹 | | yangyuying@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524070006 | 事项： 经营回顾：背靠微信小程序积累超 2 亿付费用户，2024 年 ARPU 提升战略成效显著。公司由业务互补的同 程 ...

同程旅行最新报告预测，2025年"五一"假期旅游市场热度有望创2023年来同期新高，假日经济将持续受 益。报告显示，非一线城市用户构成的大众旅游需求是主要驱动力，同时品质休闲度假趋势显著增强， 表现为高星级酒店预订热度远超经济型酒店，显示消费升级迹象。游客行程亦从北京、成都、上海等国 内热点扩展至日韩、东南亚等海外目的地。整体市场预计呈现供需两旺态势，出行高峰集中在假期前两 日。 ...

2025年4月9日，同程旅行(00780)收于21.30港元，上涨7.68%，盘中触及21.50港元的年内新高。而同为 港股OTA板块的携程集团(09961)收于433.20港元，微跌0.05%。港股OTA板块两大巨头走势明显分化。 在全球"关税大战"阴云密布的当下，资本避险情绪强烈，聚焦于国内大消费的公司成为资本眼中的香饽 饽。相反，国际业务占比相对较大的公司则上演了一轮资本"大逃杀"，相关上市公司的股价出现了踩踏 式下跌。而聚焦于国内市场的同程旅行，则成为资本眼中的优选避险标的。 2024年，同程旅行实现营收173.4亿元，同比增长45.8%，经调整EBITDA40.5亿元，同比增长29.7%。业 绩增长的核心驱动因素是国内大众旅游市场消费升级的红利。这与携程高举高打在海外开疆拓土形成鲜 明差异：2024年第四季度，携程集团国际业务收入占比达到了14%，2024年全年占比约为10%。 事实上，自美国特朗普政府挑起关税战以来，国际旅游市场局部已经出现了下行迹象。例如，自美加因 关税问题交恶后，加拿大赴美游客数量骤降，2025年2月从陆路入境美国的加拿大游客同比减少23%， 航空客流下降13%，航班预订量暴跌 ...

● 同程旅行 × ◎ 美图秀秀 +日樱花作意开 绕花岂惜日千间 热门打卡风格 梦幻少女 Al樱花发饰(渐变发丝+花瓣点缀) 推荐打卡功能 仰拍避开人群，樱花树下回眸笑, ○ 拍照 攻 略 发饰特效自带仙气滤镜～ 4 武汉·东湖樱花园 热门打卡地 ♀ 无锡·富头渚 � 平坝·贵安樱花园 春意渐浓，赏花游热度快速上涨。4月2日，同程旅行联合美图秀秀发布《2025春季赏花打卡指南》。同 程旅行数据显示，"拍照打卡"成为春季赏花出游核心需求之一，相关搜索热度同比上涨39%。随着大众 旅游消费崛起，用户需求从"到此一游"式拍照向朋友圈"精致九宫格"进阶。同程旅行和美图秀秀盘点春 季热门赏花地及打卡攻略，为游客提供更多拍照灵感，上美图秀秀搜索"同程旅行 "，一键get旅行 「花」式出片指南。 ❤ 同程旅行 × ☺ 美图秀秀 43 AM 42 花式出片 Q c 美图秀秀 花式出片 Q 字同程旅行 搜 一 搜 ， 即 可 体 验 人 像 美 容 配 方 搜 一 搜 ， 来 一 场 春 日 赏 花 旅 行 = 同程旅行 × (3) 美图秀秀 唯有牡丹真国色 +花开时节动京城 热门打卡风格 国风大片 国潮纹样牡丹贴纸 推荐打卡素 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2][7]. Core Insights - The company's performance exceeded expectations, supported by strong monetization capabilities driving high revenue growth. The focus on refined subsidies and continuous efficiency improvements is enhancing profitability. The international business is expected to contribute as a second growth curve [3][7]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected to reach 17.34 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 49.12%. Adjusted net profit is expected to be 2.79 billion RMB, up 26.66% year-on-year. The adjusted EBITDA is forecasted at 4.05 billion RMB, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 29.65% [6][7]. - The company achieved revenue of 4.24 billion RMB in Q4 2024, a year-on-year increase of 34.76%. The core OTA segment generated revenue of 3.46 billion RMB, up 20.2% year-on-year. Adjusted net profit for Q4 was 660 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 36.82% [7]. Market Performance - The current stock price is 19.12 HKD, with a 52-week price range of 12.70 to 22.30 HKD. The target price is set at 25.97 HKD, based on a 16x PE valuation for 2025, leading to a target market capitalization of 54.3 billion RMB [2][7].

公 司 研 究 华福证券 旅游综合 2025 年 03 月 25 日 同程旅行（00780.HK） 核心 OTA 盈利能力上行，国际业务快速扩张 | 证 | 财务数据和估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 券 | 主营收入（百万元） | 11,896 | 17,341 | 19,661 | 22,511 | 25,632 | | | 增长率 | 81% | 46% | 13% | 14% | 14% | | 研 | 归母净利润（百万 | 1,554 | 1,974 | 2,606 | 3,147 | 3,752 | | 究 | 元） 增长率 | 1,164% | 27% | 32% | 21% | 19% | | 报 | EPS（元/股） | 0.67 | 0.85 | 1.12 | 1.35 | 1.61 | | 告 | 市盈率（P/E） | 27.4 | 21.6 | 16.3 | 13.5 | 11.3 | | | 市净率（P/B） | 2.4 | 2.1 | ...

公 司 研 究 华福证券 旅游综合 2025 年 03 月 25 日 同程旅行（00780.HK） 核心 OTA 盈利能力上行，国际业务快速扩张 投资要点： 经调整净利润高于彭博一致预期，核心 OTA 盈利改善明显： 公 司 财 2024Q4 同程旅行实现营收 42.4 亿元/同比+34.8%，经调整净利润 6.6 亿元/同比+36.8%/经调整净利润率 15.6%，业绩高于预期主要来自 于核心 OTA 业务经营利润率同比+6.8pct 至 28.4%，核心业务盈利能力 明显改善。 业务拆分来看，核心 OTA 收入稳健增长，国际业务快速扩张： 报 点 评 收入端，2024Q4 交通业务收入 17.2 亿元/同比+17.0%，其中国际 机票市场份额快速扩张，全年业务量同比增长超 130%；住宿业务收入 11.4 亿元/同比+28.6%，其中国际酒店保持行业领先增速，全年业务量 同比增长超 110%；其他业务收入 6.0 亿元/同比+14.8%，其中艺龙酒店 科技平台保持扩张趋势，在营酒店规模近 2300 家；度假业务收入 7.8 亿元，产品和服务价值驱动旗下旅行社门店超 1000 家。经营利润端， 2024Q4 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][9]. Core Insights - The core online travel agency (OTA) platform shows strong growth momentum, with notable performance in international business. In Q4 2024, the core OTA achieved revenue of 3.46 billion yuan (up 20% year-on-year) and an operating profit margin of 28.4% (up 4.8 percentage points year-on-year) [5]. - The company reported a total revenue of 4.24 billion yuan in Q4 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 34.8%, and an adjusted net profit of 660 million yuan (up 36.8% year-on-year) [4][5]. - The company is focusing on vertical expansion in the vacation business, which contributed additional revenue, achieving 780 million yuan in Q4 2024 [5]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2024, the company achieved a total transaction volume of 54.7 billion yuan (up 2.2% year-on-year) [4]. - The average monthly paying user count reached 41 million in Q4 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.3%, with the total annual paying user count reaching 238 million (up 1.5% year-on-year) [5]. - The company’s revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 19.5 billion, 22.8 billion, and 25.8 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.56 billion, 3.08 billion, and 3.61 billion yuan [8]. Market Position - The company is positioned as a leading OTA platform in the lower-tier market, benefiting from the release of domestic travel demand, increased penetration in lower-tier markets, and the recovery of international business [8]. - The company’s market capitalization target for 2025 is set at 49.9 billion yuan, with a target price of 23 HKD per share [8].

Summary of Tongcheng Travel Holdings Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Tongcheng Travel Holdings - **Industry**: Online Travel Agency (OTA) within the China Internet and Other Services sector - **Stock Rating**: Overweight - **Price Target**: HK$25.00, representing a 36% upside from the current price of HK$18.38 as of March 20, 2025 [4][4][4] Key Financial Results - **4Q24 Performance**: - Core OTA revenue increased by 20% year-over-year (YoY), exceeding expectations by 1% [2][2] - Total revenue grew by 35%, outperforming estimates by 5 percentage points, driven by a robust tourism sector [2][2] - Adjusted profit rose by 37% YoY, 9% above forecasts, attributed to savings in selling and marketing (S&M) expenses [2][2] - Annual dividend declared at HK$0.18 per share, a 20% increase YoY [2][2] 2025 Outlook - **Valuation**: Currently trading at 13x 2025 estimated P/E, a 35% discount compared to peers like TCOM, marking the deepest discount in three years despite a favorable growth outlook [2][2] - **Margin Guidance**: Management anticipates an upward trend in margins, with a projected improvement of over 1 percentage point for the core OTA business [2][2] Growth Drivers 1. **Domestic Travel Demand**: Management expects OTA revenue growth to be 2-3 times the industry average in 1Q25, targeting 14-19% growth compared to the government's forecast of 6-7% for travel consumption during the Chinese New Year [7][7] 2. **Non-Core Business Growth**: Segments such as advertisement, property management services (PMS), hotel management, and membership are expected to sustain over 30% growth for the year [7][7] 3. **Margin Improvement**: Enhanced efficiency in S&M expenses is anticipated to continue, with a focus on cross-selling strategies [7][7] Risks and Challenges - **Tourism Business Pressure**: The acquired tourism segment may face stagnation due to reliance on low-margin packaged tours to Thailand, but this is expected to have minimal impact on overall profitability [7][7] - **Market Competition**: Potential intensification of competition in lower-tier cities could affect margins and pricing strategies [14][14] Additional Insights - **Market Position**: The company is viewed as undervalued relative to its growth potential, with a strong emphasis on improving operational efficiency and expanding its market share in the OTA space [1][1] - **Financial Metrics**: - Revenue projections for 2025 are estimated at RMB 19.39 billion, with net income expected to reach RMB 3.09 billion [4][4] - The company has shown resilience with a net profit margin of 8.3% in 4Q24, despite a decline from previous quarters [10][10] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call regarding Tongcheng Travel Holdings, highlighting its financial performance, growth outlook, and potential risks in the current market environment.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the coming months [6]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to reach 173.41 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 45.8%. The core OTA platform is expected to generate 142 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 22.1% [6]. - The adjusted net profit for 2024 is forecasted at 27.9 billion yuan, an increase of 26.7% compared to the previous year. The adjusted diluted EPS is estimated to be 1.20 yuan [2][6]. - The company is expected to achieve a breakeven point in its international business by 2025, with significant growth potential in international ticketing and hotel bookings [6]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2024: 173.41 billion yuan - 2025: 198.61 billion yuan - 2026: 222.40 billion yuan - 2027: 243.36 billion yuan - Revenue growth rates are projected at 46%, 15%, 12%, and 9% respectively [2][6]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: - Adjusted net profit for 2024 is 27.9 billion yuan, with projections of 32 billion yuan in 2025, 39 billion yuan in 2026, and 45 billion yuan in 2027 [2][6]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - Adjusted diluted EPS is expected to grow from 1.20 yuan in 2024 to 1.93 yuan by 2027 [2][6]. - **Profitability Metrics**: - The adjusted PE ratio is projected to decrease from 15.36 in 2024 to 9.50 in 2027, indicating improving valuation [2][6]. User Engagement and Growth - The company reported a monthly average of 43.1 million paying users in 2024, a 4.4% increase year-on-year, with annual paying users reaching 240 million, marking a 1.5% growth [6]. - The average revenue per user (ARPU) increased by 44%, with the frequency of user consumption rising from 5.5 times in 2019 to 8.1 times in 2024 [6]. Cost Management and Profitability - The report highlights improved cost management, with a decrease in service development, sales, and administrative expenses as a percentage of revenue [6]. - The adjusted net profit margin for the core OTA platform is projected to improve, indicating ongoing enhancements in profitability [6].