智通财经APP获悉，花旗发布研报称， 在当前估值合理及春节旅游旺季即将到来的背景下，对同程旅 行(00780)持短期正面看法，且同程基本面稳定，维持"买入"评级。展望2026年，低线城市市场和出境 游的扩张，加上平均客房收益的进一步提升，有望持续推动酒店收入实现十位数增长，并带来利润率的 轻微改善。基于这些因素，花旗对同程旅行2025至2027年的盈利预测进行小幅上调，并维持目标价28港 元不变。 市场预计同程旅行将于3月中旬公布2025年第四季度业绩，其收入和调整后利润可能大致符合市场预 期。随着平均客房收益的复苏及客房夜量录得低十位数增长，花旗预计2025年第四季度酒店收入同比增 长15.8%。此外，交通票务收入的增长可能主要受益于佣金率的改善。 ...

市场预计同程旅行将于3月中旬公布2025年第四季度业绩，其收入和调整后利润可能大致符合市场预 期。随着平均客房收益的复苏及客房夜量录得低十位数增长，花旗预计2025年第四季度酒店收入同比增 长15.8%。此外，交通票务收入的增长可能主要受益于佣金率的改善。 花旗发布研报称，在当前估值合理及春节旅游旺季即将到来的背景下，对同程旅行(00780)持短期正面 看法，且同程基本面稳定，维持"买入"评级。展望2026年，低线城市市场和出境游的扩张，加上平均客 房收益的进一步提升，有望持续推动酒店收入实现十位数增长，并带来利润率的轻微改善。基于这些因 素，花旗对同程旅行2025至2027年的盈利预测进行小幅上调，并维持目标价28港元不变。 ...

Tongcheng is likely to report 4Q25E results ~mid-Mar, and we expect revs and adj. profit largely in line with consensus. With expectation of ADR recovery and low teens room nights growth, we maintain 4Q25E hotel revs growth at 15.8% yoy, while transportation growth could be more supported by take rates improvement. Into 2026E, expansion into lower-tier cities and outbound travel, together with further ADR improvement, likely continue to drive teens hotel revs growth as well as slight margin improvement. We ...

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market showed resilience, with the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index recovering from previous declines, closing up by 0.37% and 1.11% respectively [1][2] - The overall market remained stable despite a significant drop in US stocks overnight [1] Sector Performance - Major technology stocks saw gains, with notable increases in shares of Hua Hong Semiconductor (up over 5%) and SenseTime (up over 4%) [4][5] - Semiconductor stocks were active, driven by positive sentiment in the AI-driven storage cycle, with companies like Zhaoyi Innovation reaching new highs [2][7] - Gold stocks surged, led by Chifeng Jilong Gold (up over 9%) and Lingbao Gold (up over 8%), as spot gold prices broke through $4,880 [6][8] Individual Stock Movements - The stock of Skyworth Group soared over 37% after announcing a distribution of shares in Skyworth Photovoltaic and plans for a mainboard listing [16] - Southbound funds recorded a net inflow of HKD 13.93 billion, indicating strong investor interest [19] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the Hang Seng Index could challenge the 30,000 to 31,000 point range by 2026, as current valuations remain below historical averages [21]

本文源自：金融界AI电报 港股科技股走强，恒生科技指数涨幅一度扩大至1.7%。个股中，快手、华虹半导体涨超5%，百度集 团、同程旅行涨超4%，中芯国际、阿里健康涨超3%，阿里巴巴、比亚迪电子、哔哩哔哩、舜宇、比亚 迪股份涨超2%。 ...

同程旅行(00780)尾盘涨超4%，截至发稿，涨3.87%，报23.62港元，成交额2.52亿港元。 "史上最长春节假期"显著拉动了今年春运期间的多次出行需求，其中，民航2次以上出行旅客占比预计 将达13%，铁路2次以上出行旅客占比则有望突破30%，均为2023年以来的同期新高。国盛证券 （002670）指出，同程旅行聚焦的下沉市场在线旅游渗透率提升空间大且消费潜力充沛，公司有望把握 这一增长红利。此外，公司积极拓展APP端等多渠道流量，并深度挖掘客群消费需求，推动用户价值提 升，近期各季度的MPU值和客均收入贡献均持续增长，其中25Q3分别+3%/12%，整体运营呈量价齐升 趋势。 消息面上，1月20日，同程旅行发布了《2026年度春运旅行趋势报告》。《报告》显示，民航、铁路节 前的第一波出行高峰预计将出现在2月6日前后，节前的客流峰值预计将出现在2月13日和14日两天。春 运期间，国内航班的机票价格较去年同期略有上涨。热门线路方面，春节前铁路热门出发城市主要集中 于广州、重庆、北京等一线城市及区域中心城市，民航的热门出发城市则集中于上海、广州、深圳等一 线城市。 ...

消息面上，1月20日，同程旅行发布了《2026年度春运旅行趋势报告》。《报告》显示，民航、铁路节 前的第一波出行高峰预计将出现在2月6日前后，节前的客流峰值预计将出现在2月13日和14日两天。春 运期间，国内航班的机票价格较去年同期略有上涨。热门线路方面，春节前铁路热门出发城市主要集中 于广州、重庆、北京等一线城市及区域中心城市，民航的热门出发城市则集中于上海、广州、深圳等一 线城市。 智通财经APP获悉，同程旅行(00780)尾盘涨超4%，截至发稿，涨3.87%，报23.62港元，成交额2.52亿港 元。 "史上最长春节假期"显著拉动了今年春运期间的多次出行需求，其中，民航2次以上出行旅客占比预计 将达13%，铁路2次以上出行旅客占比则有望突破30%，均为2023年以来的同期新高。国盛证券指出， 同程旅行聚焦的下沉市场在线旅游渗透率提升空间大且消费潜力充沛，公司有望把握这一增长红利。此 外，公司积极拓展APP端等多渠道流量，并深度挖掘客群消费需求，推动用户价值提升，近期各季度的 MPU值和客均收入贡献均持续增长，其中25Q3分别+3%/12%，整体运营呈量价齐升趋势。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，1月20日，同程旅行发布了《2026年度春运旅行趋势报告》。《报告》显示，民航、铁路节前的第一波出行高峰预计将出现在2月6日 前后，节前的客流峰值预计将出现在2月13日和14日两天。春运期间，国内航班的机票价格较去年同期略有上涨。热门线路方面，春节前铁路热门出发城 市主要集中于广州、重庆、北京等一线城市及区域中心城市，民航的热门出发城市则集中于上海、广州、深圳等一线城市。"史上最长春节假期"显著拉动 了今年春运期间的多次出行需求，其中，民航2次以上出行旅客占比预计将达13%，铁路2次以上出行旅客占比则有望突破30%，均为2023年以来的同期新 高。 民航及铁路第一波返乡高峰预计出现在2月6日，机票均价较去年略有上涨 《报告》预测，2026年春运的第一波出行高峰预计将出现在2月7日(农历腊月二十)前后，全国民航和铁路春节前的客流峰值预计将出现在2月13日、14日 两天。2月16日除夕夜及2月17日春节当天，全国民航和铁路将迎来整个春运期间的客流低谷。返程客流高峰预计将出现在2月23日(农历正月初七)前后。 | | | 航线 / | | --- | --- | --- | | 01 | 上海 ...

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley's report on Chinese tech stocks presents an optimistic outlook for AI development by 2026, driven by both supply and demand factors [1] - The overseas expansion of internet companies is highlighted as a crucial strategy to address macroeconomic, competitive, regulatory, and geopolitical risks [1] Company Preferences - The report lists preferred stocks with an "overweight" rating, including Tencent, Alibaba, Pinduoduo, Tencent Music, NetEase, BOSS Zhipin, Manbang, Meituan, Trip.com, Tongcheng Travel, TAL Education, and Beike [1]

Group 1: Tourism Industry - The tourism market is expected to grow by over 10% in 2025, driven by the continuous release of leisure travel demand and the rise of experiential consumption [1] - Domestic tourism revenue and visitor numbers are projected to increase by 12% and 18% year-on-year in Q1-Q3 2025, respectively [1] - Recommended stocks in the tourism industry include China Duty Free Group, Jin Jiang Hotels, ShouLai Hotels, Tongcheng Travel, and Trip.com Group [1] Group 2: Restaurant Industry - Offline consumption is gradually recovering, with domestic restaurant revenue reaching 519.9 billion and 605.7 billion yuan in October and November 2025, showing year-on-year growth of 4.99% and 4.40% [2] - The recovery of leading restaurant companies is faster than the industry average, with a focus on stocks like Green Tea Group and Haidilao [2] Group 3: Tea Beverage Industry - Since Q4 2025, same-store sales for leading tea brands like Gu Ming and Hu Shang A Yi have continued to grow at a high rate of 15-20%, aided by delivery subsidies and brand expansion into coffee and breakfast categories [3] - Despite a slight decrease in delivery subsidies, leading brands are accelerating their expansion, highlighting the advantages of top brands [3] Group 4: Online Travel Agency (OTA) Industry - The recovery of travel demand is ongoing, with OTA performance improving due to increased domestic leisure travel demand, hotel supply growth, and rising online penetration [4] - The performance of OTAs is expected to remain stable with long-term growth potential, particularly with the high growth in outbound travel [4] - Recommended stocks in the OTA sector include Trip.com Group and Tongcheng Travel [4] Group 5: Hotel Industry - In Q4 2025, hotel room supply is expected to grow by 6-8% year-on-year, with RevPAR remaining stable compared to 2024, benefiting from increased holiday traffic and low base effects [5] - Leading hotel companies are expected to have significant earnings elasticity in a cyclical environment, with recommendations for Jin Jiang Hotels and ShouLai Hotels [5]