Summary of Tongcheng Travel Conference Call Company Overview - Tongcheng Travel is a leading one-stop travel platform in China, holding a dominant position in the lower-tier market through deep engagement in vertical fields, benefiting from Tencent's traffic support and Ctrip's inventory sharing [2][5]. Financial Projections - Adjusted net profit forecasts for Tongcheng Travel are expected to be RMB 3.3 billion, RMB 3.9 billion, and RMB 4.6 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2][6]. - By 2026, the company's valuation is projected to be around 12 times earnings, indicating a high investment cost-performance ratio [2][6]. Industry Dynamics - The OTA (Online Travel Agency) industry is experiencing a favorable competitive landscape, with market shares of Ctrip, Meituan, and Tongcheng at 36%, 21%, and 15% respectively [2][7]. - Differentiated competition allows companies to share market growth while maintaining good profitability [7]. Policy Impact - Anticipated policy benefits in 2026 include increased holiday days post-adjustment, spring and autumn holidays, and organized spring and autumn tours by labor unions, which are expected to enhance residents' willingness to travel [2][8]. Market Position and Strategy - Tongcheng Travel has a significant advantage in the lower-tier market, with 87% of registered users coming from non-first-tier cities [2][10]. - The company is enhancing its core competitiveness through mergers and acquisitions, integrating travel, hospitality, and other tourism resources [3][11]. User Acquisition and Marketing - Tongcheng Travel is diversifying its user acquisition channels through partnerships with Alipay, pre-installation on mobile devices, and offline channels, which strengthens its user base [2][10]. Future Development Plans - The company plans to extend its upstream industry chain through mergers and acquisitions, creating a second growth curve while continuously optimizing user marketing strategies to improve ROI on outbound travel [5][11]. Conclusion - Overall, the outlook for Tongcheng Travel is optimistic, with strong growth potential in the tourism sector and a solid strategy to maintain its leading position in the lower-tier market [4][11].

2026年春运首日车票（2月2日出发的火车票）于1月19日开售，热门出行线路的火车票、机票关注 度均快速上升，杭州出发的五个热门铁路目的地分别是贵阳、长沙、郑州、南昌、成都。根据同程、飞 猪等第三方旅行平台发布的数据，2月2日起，随着除夕当日火车票开售，节前机票均价将一路攀升，直 至2月14日前后迎来峰值。 同程研究院一名分析师表示，根据过去三年的春运出行趋势，春运期间出行最为密集的两个高峰时 间窗口通常为腊月廿二与正月初六前后，从近期的预订情况来看，这两个时间段的机票搜索量和预订热 度更高。同时，由于1月26日将开售2月9日（腊月廿二）的火车票，2月8日将开售2月22日（正月初六） 的火车票，预计这两个时段的购票紧张程度将较春运其他时段更为突出。 对于出行时间灵活的旅客，他补充道，"2月7日和8日也是春节假期前的最后一个周末，若能在2月9 日至14日请假，叠加周末和春节假期，可以拼出17天的超长假期，从而实现错峰出行。" 在机票方面，春运期间杭州出发至昆明、哈尔滨、成都的航线位列十大热门航线榜单，其中2月13 日与14日出行需求尤为集中，机票价格涨幅较为明显。值得关注的是，学生群体已成为春运出行的重要 力量 ...

智通财经APP获悉，花旗发布研报称， 在当前估值合理及春节旅游旺季即将到来的背景下，对同程旅 行(00780)持短期正面看法，且同程基本面稳定，维持"买入"评级。展望2026年，低线城市市场和出境 游的扩张，加上平均客房收益的进一步提升，有望持续推动酒店收入实现十位数增长，并带来利润率的 轻微改善。基于这些因素，花旗对同程旅行2025至2027年的盈利预测进行小幅上调，并维持目标价28港 元不变。 市场预计同程旅行将于3月中旬公布2025年第四季度业绩，其收入和调整后利润可能大致符合市场预 期。随着平均客房收益的复苏及客房夜量录得低十位数增长，花旗预计2025年第四季度酒店收入同比增 长15.8%。此外，交通票务收入的增长可能主要受益于佣金率的改善。 ...

市场预计同程旅行将于3月中旬公布2025年第四季度业绩，其收入和调整后利润可能大致符合市场预 期。随着平均客房收益的复苏及客房夜量录得低十位数增长，花旗预计2025年第四季度酒店收入同比增 长15.8%。此外，交通票务收入的增长可能主要受益于佣金率的改善。 花旗发布研报称，在当前估值合理及春节旅游旺季即将到来的背景下，对同程旅行(00780)持短期正面 看法，且同程基本面稳定，维持"买入"评级。展望2026年，低线城市市场和出境游的扩张，加上平均客 房收益的进一步提升，有望持续推动酒店收入实现十位数增长，并带来利润率的轻微改善。基于这些因 素，花旗对同程旅行2025至2027年的盈利预测进行小幅上调，并维持目标价28港元不变。 ...

Tongcheng is likely to report 4Q25E results ~mid-Mar, and we expect revs and adj. profit largely in line with consensus. With expectation of ADR recovery and low teens room nights growth, we maintain 4Q25E hotel revs growth at 15.8% yoy, while transportation growth could be more supported by take rates improvement. Into 2026E, expansion into lower-tier cities and outbound travel, together with further ADR improvement, likely continue to drive teens hotel revs growth as well as slight margin improvement. We ...

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market showed resilience, with the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index recovering from previous declines, closing up by 0.37% and 1.11% respectively [1][2] - The overall market remained stable despite a significant drop in US stocks overnight [1] Sector Performance - Major technology stocks saw gains, with notable increases in shares of Hua Hong Semiconductor (up over 5%) and SenseTime (up over 4%) [4][5] - Semiconductor stocks were active, driven by positive sentiment in the AI-driven storage cycle, with companies like Zhaoyi Innovation reaching new highs [2][7] - Gold stocks surged, led by Chifeng Jilong Gold (up over 9%) and Lingbao Gold (up over 8%), as spot gold prices broke through $4,880 [6][8] Individual Stock Movements - The stock of Skyworth Group soared over 37% after announcing a distribution of shares in Skyworth Photovoltaic and plans for a mainboard listing [16] - Southbound funds recorded a net inflow of HKD 13.93 billion, indicating strong investor interest [19] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the Hang Seng Index could challenge the 30,000 to 31,000 point range by 2026, as current valuations remain below historical averages [21]

本文源自：金融界AI电报 港股科技股走强，恒生科技指数涨幅一度扩大至1.7%。个股中，快手、华虹半导体涨超5%，百度集 团、同程旅行涨超4%，中芯国际、阿里健康涨超3%，阿里巴巴、比亚迪电子、哔哩哔哩、舜宇、比亚 迪股份涨超2%。 ...

同程旅行(00780)尾盘涨超4%，截至发稿，涨3.87%，报23.62港元，成交额2.52亿港元。 "史上最长春节假期"显著拉动了今年春运期间的多次出行需求，其中，民航2次以上出行旅客占比预计 将达13%，铁路2次以上出行旅客占比则有望突破30%，均为2023年以来的同期新高。国盛证券 （002670）指出，同程旅行聚焦的下沉市场在线旅游渗透率提升空间大且消费潜力充沛，公司有望把握 这一增长红利。此外，公司积极拓展APP端等多渠道流量，并深度挖掘客群消费需求，推动用户价值提 升，近期各季度的MPU值和客均收入贡献均持续增长，其中25Q3分别+3%/12%，整体运营呈量价齐升 趋势。 消息面上，1月20日，同程旅行发布了《2026年度春运旅行趋势报告》。《报告》显示，民航、铁路节 前的第一波出行高峰预计将出现在2月6日前后，节前的客流峰值预计将出现在2月13日和14日两天。春 运期间，国内航班的机票价格较去年同期略有上涨。热门线路方面，春节前铁路热门出发城市主要集中 于广州、重庆、北京等一线城市及区域中心城市，民航的热门出发城市则集中于上海、广州、深圳等一 线城市。 ...

消息面上，1月20日，同程旅行发布了《2026年度春运旅行趋势报告》。《报告》显示，民航、铁路节 前的第一波出行高峰预计将出现在2月6日前后，节前的客流峰值预计将出现在2月13日和14日两天。春 运期间，国内航班的机票价格较去年同期略有上涨。热门线路方面，春节前铁路热门出发城市主要集中 于广州、重庆、北京等一线城市及区域中心城市，民航的热门出发城市则集中于上海、广州、深圳等一 线城市。 智通财经APP获悉，同程旅行(00780)尾盘涨超4%，截至发稿，涨3.87%，报23.62港元，成交额2.52亿港 元。 "史上最长春节假期"显著拉动了今年春运期间的多次出行需求，其中，民航2次以上出行旅客占比预计 将达13%，铁路2次以上出行旅客占比则有望突破30%，均为2023年以来的同期新高。国盛证券指出， 同程旅行聚焦的下沉市场在线旅游渗透率提升空间大且消费潜力充沛，公司有望把握这一增长红利。此 外，公司积极拓展APP端等多渠道流量，并深度挖掘客群消费需求，推动用户价值提升，近期各季度的 MPU值和客均收入贡献均持续增长，其中25Q3分别+3%/12%，整体运营呈量价齐升趋势。 ...

Core Insights - The report from Tongcheng Travel predicts the first wave of travel peak during the Spring Festival will occur around February 6, 2026, with the highest passenger flow expected on February 13 and 14 [1][2] - Domestic flight ticket prices have slightly increased compared to the same period last year, with average prices exceeding 950 yuan for domestic flights and around 900 yuan for international flights [2] - The longest Spring Festival holiday in history is expected to significantly boost travel demand, with over 13% of air travelers and over 30% of railway travelers anticipated to travel more than twice during the Spring Festival period, both figures representing new highs since 2023 [1][7] Travel Patterns - Major departure cities for railway travel before the Spring Festival include Guangzhou, Chongqing, and Beijing, while popular departure cities for air travel are Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [3][4] - The report indicates a clear "tidal" flow pattern between central cities and major labor-exporting areas, driven by the return of workers and office employees [2][7] - Popular travel routes during the Spring Festival include Shanghai to Chengdu, Guangzhou to Shanghai, and Shenzhen to Shanghai, among others [5][6] Passenger Demographics - The proportion of family travel during the Spring Festival is expected to rise significantly, with an estimated 39% of ticket users being family travelers, and 19% being seniors aged 60 and above [9] - The report highlights a notable increase in first-time flyers, with an expected growth of over 30% in first-time travelers during the Spring Festival, particularly among younger demographics [12] Technology Integration - The integration of travel AI is anticipated to be a major highlight for the 2026 Spring Festival, with a significant increase in inquiries related to travel planning [11] - The AI tool, DeepTrip, has seen a 100% increase in questions regarding Spring Festival travel, providing solutions for common issues such as ticket availability and pricing [11]