特朗普吹了大半天，只有一项是威胁，但一听50天，俄罗斯人很淡定

Group 1: Global Energy Trade and Sanctions - Russia's crude oil exports to the Asia-Pacific region increased by 17% year-on-year as of June [1] - The impact of global sanctions on Russia is diminishing, with rising market uncertainty due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1] - In 2024, U.S. imports from Russia are projected to be only $3.5 billion, primarily consisting of fertilizers, metals, and limited energy [2] - Russia's exports to the U.S. account for less than 0.5% of its total exports, making U.S. tariff threats less impactful [2] - Russia's trade with China and India is expected to grow, with bilateral trade projected to exceed $90 billion by mid-2025 [2][3] Group 2: Military Aid and Global Response - Trump announced increased military aid to Ukraine, including the provision of Patriot missile systems, with European countries expected to cover costs [4] - Global arms trade is expected to grow by 21% by 2025, with U.S. companies dominating the market [4] - Ukraine's air defense is under significant pressure, with Russian drone attacks increasing fivefold [4][5] - The European Union is cautious about the potential disruption of global energy supply chains and emphasizes the need for stable cooperation [3] Group 3: Political Implications and Market Reactions - Trump's "last ultimatum" is perceived as a political performance aimed at strengthening his image domestically rather than effecting real change in the Russia-Ukraine conflict [8] - The potential for unilateral sanctions to trigger unforeseen global repercussions is highlighted, with increasing skepticism from EU countries regarding Trump's policies [7][8] - Russia's financial system is moving towards de-dollarization, with a growing reliance on the yuan and ruble for cross-border transactions [5]