国债ETF5至10年(511020)多空胶着，机构：下半年国内降息节奏可能与美联储降息节奏共振

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the performance of the 5-10 year government bond ETF is currently stable, with a slight increase of 0.12% in July 2025, and a recent trading price of 117.57 yuan [1] - The liquidity of the 5-10 year government bond ETF shows a turnover rate of 0.52% with a transaction volume of 7.76 million yuan, while the average daily transaction volume over the past month is 6.92 billion yuan [1] - The total scale of the 5-10 year government bond ETF has reached 1.494 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - Longcheng Securities suggests that if certain conditions are met in the second half of the year, particularly in Q3, the probability of the central bank engaging in government bond transactions and implementing comprehensive interest rate cuts will increase significantly [4] - The conditions include the RMB appreciating against the USD, a weak stock market, the Federal Reserve cutting rates, and a peak in government bond supply [4] - It is anticipated that the domestic interest rate cut schedule may align with the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, potentially leading to a new low in the ten-year government bond yield in the second half of the year [4]