GTC泽汇：市场稳定性面临政策博弈压力

Core Viewpoint - Recent rumors regarding former President Trump's potential dismissal of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell have reignited concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, impacting investor confidence amid current economic conditions [1][4] Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - The independence of the Federal Reserve is considered a cornerstone for the stability of global capital markets, despite Powell's decisions facing scrutiny during multiple interest rate hikes and monetary tightening cycles [1] - Some senior Republican senators have publicly expressed support for Powell, aiming to uphold the tradition of central bank independence and prevent it from becoming an administrative tool [1] - Concerns were raised by Senator Thom Tillis about the implications of the Federal Reserve operating under presidential control, which could undermine its credibility and long-term economic outlook [1] Group 2: Policy Implications - Trump's dissatisfaction with Powell stems from the latter's reluctance to implement rapid interest rate cuts during the election period, although interest rate decisions are made collectively by the Federal Open Market Committee [1] - The collective decision-making process enhances policy robustness, indicating that even a change in chairmanship would not fundamentally alter the policy trajectory in the short term [1] Group 3: Market Reactions and Recommendations - The primary risk highlighted is the potential erosion of market confidence in the stability of the Federal Reserve's institutional framework, which could lead to volatility in the dollar, bond markets, and global liquidity [4] - Investors are advised to closely monitor the political dynamics surrounding monetary policy while being cautious of short-term impacts on risk assets due to political rhetoric [4] - For long-term investors, focusing on the Federal Reserve's decisions driven by economic data rather than political statements is deemed a more rational investment strategy [4]