市场低估了特朗普？分析师警告：TACO交易恐将“翻车”

Core Viewpoint - Analysts are warning that global investors may be underestimating President Trump's commitment to his latest tariff threats, which could have significant implications for the market [2][3] Group 1: Market Reactions - The European market reacted mildly to Trump's announcement of a 30% tariff on goods imported from the EU and Mexico, with the Stoxx 600 index only dropping 0.06% on the first trading day after the announcement [2] - The index experienced a slightly deeper sell-off of 0.4% the following day, primarily influenced by concerns over rising inflation and economic growth [2] - In contrast to earlier market reactions, the current sentiment appears more complacent, despite the impending higher tariff rates compared to those set in April [2][3] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Many investors are betting on the "TACO" trade, believing that Trump's tariff threats are merely negotiation tactics and unlikely to be fully realized [3] - Some analysts express concern that this complacency could lead to significant losses for investors who expect a trade agreement to be reached [3][4] Group 3: Economic Implications - Analysts warn that the implementation of a 30% tariff could derail the current bullish trend in European markets, potentially leading to a slowdown in GDP growth [6] - The Stoxx 600 index has risen over 7% this year, with significant gains in major indices like Germany's DAX and Italy's FTSE MIB, but high tariffs could disrupt this momentum [5][6] Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - If tariffs are implemented, sectors such as defense, finance, and mining may perform relatively well, especially if defense spending continues to rise and the European Central Bank maintains low interest rates [6] - Conversely, European exporters, particularly in the automotive sector, are expected to be adversely affected by the tariffs [6]