施罗德：随着与关税相关的不确定性消除 美国经济或有望重拾增长动力

Economic Outlook - The US economy is showing signs of fatigue after years of steady growth, with personal consumption flat and increasing job market difficulties expected before May 2025 [1] - Economic slowdown may be temporary, with potential recovery as tariff-related uncertainties are resolved, and the government likely to act to prevent excessive economic slowdown ahead of the 2026 midterm elections [1] - The market does not currently expect significant inflation increases during Trump's potential second term, with the 10-year breakeven inflation rate at 2.3% [1] Investment Strategy - Schroders' asset allocation is influenced by the long-term impact of Trump's policies, favoring high-quality short-duration bonds and select emerging market high-yield local currency bonds [2] - A large but diversified short position in the US dollar is maintained, anticipating continued dollar depreciation, especially if Trump influences the next Federal Reserve chair [2] - Assets directly benefiting from inflation, such as gold mining stocks, are favored, alongside themes related to a commodity renaissance [2] Market Opportunities - The impact of Trump's policies on the overall US stock market is nuanced, presenting unique investment opportunities [3] - The banking sector is expected to benefit from regulatory rollbacks, including reduced regulatory burdens and capital requirement adjustments [3] - The development and application of artificial intelligence (AI) continue to drive profitability growth in major US tech companies, with significant earnings forecast adjustments in the tech and financial sectors [3] European Market Insights - Despite a pullback in European stock performance relative to US stocks, the MSCI Europe Index remains 17% higher than the S&P 500 when measured in USD [4] - European industrial sector earnings have significantly increased over the past six months, contrasting with stagnant earnings in the US industrial sector [4] - Schroders maintains a positive outlook on the European market, particularly in the industrial sector and mid-cap stocks, while strategically increasing alternative income sources to enhance overall portfolio performance [4]