Geopolitical and Trade Friction - The current geopolitical situation is complex, with ongoing tensions in the Israel-Palestine conflict and trade tensions due to the U.S. imposing tariffs on at least 100 small countries, which could lead to a domino effect on the global trade system [1] - Germany's IMK predicts that if U.S. tariffs on the EU are implemented, Germany's economic growth rate could be halved from 1.5% to 1.2% by 2026, increasing the recession risk for export-oriented economies [1] - Despite the heightened geopolitical risks, there has not been a significant influx of funds into gold, contrasting with the liquidity crisis sell-off seen at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic [1] Federal Reserve Policy and Inflation - The U.S. core CPI for June showed a year-on-year increase of 2.9% and a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, indicating persistent inflation [2] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book noted a slight increase in economic activity, but businesses remain cautious due to policy uncertainties, with significant price increases driven by tariff pressures [2] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in September have risen to 70%, but the divergence between Powell's optimistic statements and the cost pressures revealed in the Beige Book has led to a rebound in the dollar index to 98.55 and an increase in U.S. Treasury yields to 4.46% [2] Gold Market Dynamics - On July 17, gold prices experienced significant volatility, with a range of over $50, reflecting intense market competition amid multiple risks [3] - Technically, gold is in a wide trading range of $3,300 to $3,370, with key support at $3,330-$3,340 and resistance at $3,358-$3,360, indicating a tug-of-war between bulls and bears [6] - Historical data suggests that gold often rebounds quickly after significant daily declines, as seen in March 2020, indicating potential for new trend beginnings following current volatility [6] Central Bank Gold Purchases - A trend of global central banks increasing gold reserves provides "invisible support" to the market, with 95% of surveyed central banks indicating plans to continue purchasing gold in the next 12 months [8] - China has increased its gold reserves for eight consecutive months, reaching 73.9 million ounces, reflecting a strategic shift towards "de-dollarization" amid weakening U.S. dollar credibility [8] - The dual drivers of central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risks continue to reinforce gold's status as a safe haven in a fragmented global economy [8]
巨富金业：美联储政策迷雾未散，中东冲突再添变数
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-07-17 06:58