“股债双牛”仍是后期主线

Group 1 - The bond bull market remains intact, with potential for further declines in long-term interest rates, but a better trading window is needed, particularly around late July to early August [1][4][5] - Recent adjustments in the bond market are driven by risk appetite and asset pricing effects, alongside central bank's buyout reverse repo operations, indicating limited time and space for adjustments [1][2] - Economic data shows divergence, with strong industrial and service production but slowing retail sales and investment growth, highlighting the core contradiction in domestic demand and expectations [1][2] Group 2 - The widening gap between nominal and real economic growth rates indicates persistent low price pressures, with Q2 GDP growth at 5.2% and nominal GDP growth at 3.9%, a 0.5 percentage point increase from Q1 [1] - The supply-demand imbalance continues to deepen, primarily due to slowing investment growth, with external demand growth significantly outpacing domestic production and demand [1][3] - The "anti-involution" and urban renewal policies will need further observation for their impact on demand, with Q3 economic data being crucial for assessing internal economic momentum [2][4] Group 3 - The liquidity situation is influenced by tax payment periods, with significant fluctuations in funding rates observed around July 15, when major tax submissions are due [2] - The central bank's operations, including a substantial reverse repo on July 15, signal a commitment to support the market, with a net injection of 17.735 billion yuan on that day [2] - The current relationship between short and long-term interest rates is stable, with no signs of inversion, suggesting a low probability of continued funding stress [2][3] Group 4 - The "dual bull" market for stocks and bonds may remain a key theme, with bank stocks rising due to lower interest rates and increased attractiveness of dividend stocks [4] - The ongoing bull market in bonds is not fundamentally threatened by the current stock market dynamics, as the A-share market is not easily defined by fundamental bull trends [4][5] - The upcoming political meetings and potential tariff increases in August could influence market dynamics, with expectations for further declines in funding rates post-tax period [4][5]